Tuesday, November 06, 2018

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Nov 05 0442 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 October - 04 November 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels. The solar disk remained spotless through the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels with a peak flux of 28 pfu observed at 30/2015 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels during the period. The majority of the period was under nominal solar wind conditions with solar wind speeds between 285-365 km/s and total field at or below 6 nT. Total field began to increase at 04/0925 UTC and reached a maximum of 16 nT at 04/2225 UTC. The Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -12 nT at 04/2129 UTC. Solar wind speed began to increase at 04/1430 UTC to a maximum of 500 km/s at 04/2336 UTC as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. The geomagnetic field was quiet on 29 Oct - 03 Nov. G1 (Minor) storm levels were
observed late on 04 Nov.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 November - 01 December 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels through the forecast period (05 Nov - 01 Dec).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 07-16 Nov due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 05-07 Nov, 10-11 Nov, and again on 01 Dec with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels expected on 05 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Nov 05 0442 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2018-11-05
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2018 Nov 05      68          20          5
2018 Nov 06      68          12          4
2018 Nov 07      68           8          3
2018 Nov 08      68           5          2
2018 Nov 09      68           5          2
2018 Nov 10      68          15          4
2018 Nov 11      68          12          4
2018 Nov 12      70           5          2
2018 Nov 13      70           5          2
2018 Nov 14      70           5          2
2018 Nov 15      70           5          2
2018 Nov 16      70           5          2
2018 Nov 17      70           5          2
2018 Nov 18      69           5          2
2018 Nov 19      69           5          2
2018 Nov 20      68           5          2
2018 Nov 21      68           5          2
2018 Nov 22      68           5          3
2018 Nov 23      68           5          2
2018 Nov 24      68           5          2
2018 Nov 25      68           5          2
2018 Nov 26      68           5          2
2018 Nov 27      68           5          2
2018 Nov 28      68           5          2
2018 Nov 29      68           5          2
2018 Nov 30      68           5          2
2018 Dec 01      68          15          4
(NOAA)