Monday, March 01, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins, March 1, 2021

 

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Mar 01 0255 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 February 2021

Solar activity reached low levels with C-class flare activity. Region 2804 (N21, L=309, class/area=Dso/190 on 27 Feb) produced the only two C-class flares observed this period. The first was a C2/Sf flare observed at 27/1800 UTC and the second was a C3/Sf flare observed at 28/0646 UTC. Both C-class flares were associated with narrow CME signatures that were directed away from the Sun-Earth line. 

A CME associated with a filament eruption in the SE quadrant on 20/1200 UTC (in LASCO C2 imagery) arrived in conjunction with coronal hole/high-speed stream influences, with the effects of both features observed over 24-26 Feb. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate on 25 Feb and high throughout the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 27 Feb and quiet to unsettled on 26 and 28 Feb. Quiet to active conditions were observed on 22-26 Feb due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS influence and the arrival of the 20 Feb CME. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity-  01 March - 27 March 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low-to-low throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be moderate on 10-19 Mar. High levels are expected on 01-09, and 20-27 Mar. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 02,  06, 12-13, 15, and 21-22 Mar, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions likely on 02 and 18-19 Mar, all due to recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the outlook period. 



Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 22 0158 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-02-22
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Feb 22      75          10          4
2021 Feb 23      75          12          4
2021 Feb 24      75          12          4
2021 Feb 25      75           8          3
2021 Feb 26      75           5          2
2021 Feb 27      75           5          2
2021 Feb 28      75           5          2
2021 Mar 01      73          18          5
2021 Mar 02      74          15          4
2021 Mar 03      74           8          3
2021 Mar 04      73           5          2
2021 Mar 05      73           5          2
2021 Mar 06      73          15          4
2021 Mar 07      74           5          2
2021 Mar 08      70           5          2
2021 Mar 09      74           5          2
2021 Mar 10      76           5          2
2021 Mar 11      72           5          2
2021 Mar 12      71          15          4
2021 Mar 13      72          10          4
2021 Mar 14      70           5          2
2021 Mar 15      71          15          4
2021 Mar 16      72           8          3
2021 Mar 17      71           5          2
2021 Mar 18      73          18          5
2021 Mar 19      76          20          5
2021 Mar 20      75          20          4
(NOAA)