Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: 

:Issued: 2021 Mar 29 0157 UTCWeekly Highlights and Forecasts
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact 
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 March 2021

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the highlight period with only B-class flare activity. There was a CME off the NW  limb observed in LASCO C2 imagery near 22/0230 UTC. This ejection likely arrived late on 24 Mar and subsequently caused G1 (Minor)
storm levels on 25 Mar. No other significant solar activity was observed during the highlight period. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 22-26 Mar due to influences from multiple coronal hole high speed streams. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 27-28 Mar. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 25 Mar due to the likely arrival of the aforementioned CME from 22 Mar. Active levels were observed on 23, 26, and 27 Mar due to influences from recurrent, negative polarity cornal hole high speed streams.
Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 22 and 28 Mar. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 March - 24 April 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low for the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 10-13 and 17-22 Apr due to influences from recurrent coronal hole high speed stream activity. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the
outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 29-30 Mar, 08-10 Apr, and 16-17 Apr, all due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 29 0157 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-03-29
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Mar 29      75          18          5
2021 Mar 30      75          12          4
2021 Mar 31      75           8          3
2021 Apr 01      74           5          2
2021 Apr 02      73           5          2
2021 Apr 03      72           5          2
2021 Apr 04      72           8          3
2021 Apr 05      72           8          3
2021 Apr 06      72           5          2
2021 Apr 07      72           5          2
2021 Apr 08      72          15          4
2021 Apr 09      73          18          4
2021 Apr 10      73          20          5
2021 Apr 11      73           5          2(NOAA)
2021 Apr 12      73           5          2
2021 Apr 13      73           5          2
2021 Apr 14      74           5          2
2021 Apr 15      74           5          2
2021 Apr 16      74          20          5
2021 Apr 17      76          18          4
2021 Apr 18      76           8          3
2021 Apr 19      76           8          3
2021 Apr 20      76           5          2
2021 Apr 21      76           5          2
2021 Apr 22      76           8          3
2021 Apr 23      76           8          3
2021 Apr 24      76           8          3
(NOAA)