Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Apr 19 0151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 April 2021
Solar activity was very low throughout the period with B-class flare activity observed from Rgn 2814 (S22, L=008, class/area Cro/090 on 14 Apr), Rgn 2815 (S21, L=344, class/area Bxo/010 on 16 Apr) and Rgn 2816 (S24, L=264, class/area Cao/080 on 16 Apr). The largest event of the period was a B9 x-ray event observed at 17/1717 UTC from a region beyond the ESE limb. Associated with this event was a Type II radio signature with an estimated shock velocity of 382 km/s and a slow-moving, non-Earth directed CME off the E limb.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 12-16 Apr. High levels were observed on 17-18 Apr with a maximum flux reading of 14,078 pfu at 18/1905 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels on 12-14 Apr with an isolated active period observed late on the 14th. Unsettled to G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels were reached early on 15 Apr due to possible effects from the 10 Apr CME. Mostly unsettled to active levels were observed on 16-18 Apr, with G1 (Minor) storm levels observed on 16 and 17 Apr. This activity was all due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influence. During this activity, wind speeds reached 600 km/s, the total field reached maximums of 13 nT and the Bz component reached -10 nT at times.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 April - 15 May 2021
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels during the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 19-24 Apr and 13-15 May due to high-speed solar winds. Normal to moderate levels are anticipated for 25-30 Apr and 01-12 May.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 19-20 Apr, 23-24 Apr, 27-28 Apr, 04 May, 08 May and 11-15 May, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 13-14 May. This activity is all due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 19 0151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-04-19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Apr 19 78 12 4
2021 Apr 20 75 8 3
2021 Apr 21 75 5 2
2021 Apr 22 72 5 2
2021 Apr 23 70 8 3
2021 Apr 24 70 12 4
2021 Apr 25 70 5 2
2021 Apr 26 70 5 2
2021 Apr 27 68 10 3
2021 Apr 28 68 8 3
2021 Apr 29 68 5 2
2021 Apr 30 68 5 2
2021 May 01 68 5 2
2021 May 02 68 5 2
2021 May 03 70 5 2
2021 May 04 72 15 4
2021 May 05 72 5 2
2021 May 06 72 5 2
2021 May 07 72 5 2
2021 May 08 72 8 3
2021 May 09 72 5 2
2021 May 10 75 5 2
2021 May 11 75 8 3
2021 May 12 75 12 4
2021 May 13 75 20 5
2021 May 14 75 30 5
2021 May 15 75 15 4
(NOAA)
