Monday, November 27, 2023

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 




Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Nov 27 0159 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 November 2023

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Low levels were observed on 21-22 and 25-26 November. Moderate (R1-minor) levels were observed on 20 and 23-24 November. During the period, a total of 55 C-class and 4 M-class flares were observed from 13 different regions. Region 3492 (N19, L=345, class/area Ehi/380 on 24 Nov) was the most active region producing 23 C-class and 1 M-class flare. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels during the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on 20 and 23-24 November. Active, minor storm (G1-minor) and moderate (G2-moderate) levels were observed on 21-22 and 25-26 November. Quiet to minor storm levels were observed on 21-22
November due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Minor to moderate storm levels were observed on 25 November due to CME and positive polarity CH HSS influence. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 November - 23 December 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on 02-12 December, with a chance for moderate (R1-minor) levels on 27-30 November, 01 December and 13-23 December. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 30 November, 01-04 December and 07-09 December due to CH HSS influence. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 27-28 November, 05-07 and 12-13 December. Unsettled to G1 (minor) levels are possible on 18-20 and 22-23 December. All activity is due to a variety of positive or negative polarity CH HSS influence. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 27 0200 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2023-11-27
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2023 Nov 27     180          10          4
2023 Nov 28     180           8          3
2023 Nov 29     175           5          2
2023 Nov 30     175           5          2
2023 Dec 01     170           5          2
2023 Dec 02     165           5          2
2023 Dec 03     160           5          2
2023 Dec 04     150          10          4
2023 Dec 05     145          16          5
2023 Dec 06     140          12          4
2023 Dec 07     140          10          4
2023 Dec 08     140           5          2
2023 Dec 09     145           5          2
2023 Dec 10     145           5          2
2023 Dec 11     140           5          2
2023 Dec 12     140          10          4
2023 Dec 13     140           8          3
2023 Dec 14     140           5          2
2023 Dec 15     140           5          2
2023 Dec 16     140           5          2
2023 Dec 17     150           5          2
2023 Dec 18     160          15          4
2023 Dec 19     160          25          5
2023 Dec 20     160           8          3
2023 Dec 21     160           5          2
2023 Dec 22     160          20          5
2023 Dec 23     160          10          4
(NOAA)