Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Oct 14 0247 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 October 2024
Solar activity reached high levels on 07 and 09 Oct. An X2.1/2b flare was observed on 07/1902 UTC from Region 3842 (S15, L=180, class/area=Eki/730). On 08 Oct 2 X-class flares were observed. An X1.8 flare was observed at 09/0156 UTC from Region 3848 (N12, L=116, class/area=Dki/600). This event was accompanied by Type II (5176 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as a 2700 sfu Tenflare and Castelli U signature.
The associated Halo CME is Earth directed and early model runs suggest arrival mid to late day 10 Oct. An additional X1.4/1N flare was observed from Region 3842 at 09/1545 UTC. Numerous M-class flares were observed during the period with moderate levels being reached on 08, 10, and 11 Oct. Low levels were observed on 12-13 Oct.
The 10 MeV proton flux reached S3 (Strong) radiation storm levels on 09-10 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold reaching S3 (Strong) levels starting at 09/1240 UTC, with a peak of 1810 pfu at 10/1515 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux was also above the alert threshold of 1 pfu beginning at 09/0350 UTC, with a peak of 3 pfu at 09/0805 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels for the summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at G3 (Strong) levels on 08 Oct due to CME influences. Solar wind parameters have remained elevated since CME arrival 06 Oct. Total field has been been between 2 to 17 nT with the Bz component dropping as low as -16 nT. The Bz component has remained largely in the southward orientation since 07/1411 UTC. Solar wind speeds have remained around 450 km/s.
The phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun) but as of 07/1916 UTC has flipped to positive (away from the Sun).The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels for the summary period.
G4 (Severe) levels were observed on 10-11 Oct due to influences from a halo CME that left the Sun early on 09 Oct. Solar wind parameters, as measured by ACE, all showed abrupt jumps in value consistent with an interplanetary shock, which was interpreted as the arrival of the halo CME from 9 Oct associated with an X1.8 flare. Total magnetic field, Bt, had an average of 36 nT throughout, with a maximum of 46 nT reached at 10/2159 UTC.
The north-south component of the magnetic field, Bz, varied between north (positive) and south (negative) values. It reached a maximum southward value of -46 nT at 10/2200 UTC, with several sustained periods of -20 nT. With the arrival of the CME, the wind speed increased from a background of 400 km/s to 815 km/s, and then sustained speeds around 750 km/s for the remainder of the period. Before the CME, the phi angle was predominantly positive (away from the Sun), and then varied after the arrival.
The remainder of the period saw G2 (Moderate) levels on 07 Oct, and G1 (Minor) levels on 09 and 12 Oct. All due to lingering CME influences.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 October - 09 November 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels, with isolated days of high levels throughout the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at nomal to high levels throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) storm levels on 16 Oct with a glancing blow from a CME that left the Sun on 12 Oct. Active levels on 22 and 26 Oct due to CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on the remaining days in the
outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 14 0247 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and Web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-10-14
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Oct 14 200 10 3
2024 Oct 15 200 12 3
2024 Oct 16 200 25 5
2024 Oct 17 205 8 3
2024 Oct 18 205 5 2
2024 Oct 19 210 5 2
2024 Oct 20 210 5 2
2024 Oct 21 210 5 2
2024 Oct 22 215 15 4
2024 Oct 23 215 10 3
2024 Oct 24 220 5 2
2024 Oct 25 220 5 2
2024 Oct 26 220 12 4
2024 Oct 27 225 8 3
2024 Oct 28 235 5 2
2024 Oct 29 245 5 2
2024 Oct 30 260 5 2
2024 Oct 31 245 5 2
2024 Nov 01 235 5 2
2024 Nov 02 230 5 2
2024 Nov 03 230 5 2
2024 Nov 04 225 5 2
2024 Nov 05 220 5 2
2024 Nov 06 215 5 2
2024 Nov 07 215 5 2
2024 Nov 08 215 5 2
2024 Nov 09 210 10 3
(NOAA)
