Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Oct 21 0157 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 October 2024
Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1-Minor) on 14-28 Oct. High levels were reached on 19 Oct with the largest event of the reporting period, an M6.5 flare (R2-Moderate) at 19/0656 UTC from Region 3854 (S05, L=045, class/area=Eki/340 on 15 Oct) as it rotated around the W limb. Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep. After the departure of Region 3854 from the visible disk, solar activity decreased to low levels.
Other activity included an M2.1/Sn (R1) flare at 15/1833 UTC from Region 3854. Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep. A subsequent CME was observed with the potential for the periphery to pass by Earth around 18-19 Oct. Around the same time, an additional Type II and Type IV radio sweep was observed but was associated with activity from Region 3848 (S07, L=091, class/area=Dki/310 on 08 Oct) which had already rotated to the Sun's farside. No other CMEs in available coronagraph imagery were determined to be Earth-directed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background to moderate levels throughout the reporting period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 storm levels were reached early on 19 Oct during the onset of positive polarity CH HSS, with a possible embedded transient influence from a weak CME that left the Sun on 15 Oct. Active levels were observed on 14 Oct and 18 Oct. The remainder of the reporting period was at quiet to unsettled levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 October - 16 November 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for moderate levels (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected in geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be background to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach active levels on 21 Oct, 11-12 Nov, and 15 Nov. Unsettled levels are likely on 23-24 Oct, 13 Nov, and 16 Nov. All increases in geomagnetic activity are due to anticipated, recurrent CH HSSs. To remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 21 0157 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-10-21
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Oct 21 165 5 2
2024 Oct 22 165 15 4
2024 Oct 23 160 10 3
2024 Oct 24 155 8 3
2024 Oct 25 150 5 2
2024 Oct 26 150 5 2
2024 Oct 27 155 5 2
2024 Oct 28 165 5 2
2024 Oct 29 170 5 2
2024 Oct 30 170 5 2
2024 Oct 31 175 5 2
2024 Nov 01 180 5 2
2024 Nov 02 185 5 2
2024 Nov 03 180 5 2
2024 Nov 04 175 5 2
2024 Nov 05 180 5 2
2024 Nov 06 180 5 2
2024 Nov 07 185 5 2
2024 Nov 08 185 5 2
2024 Nov 09 180 5 2
2024 Nov 10 175 5 2
2024 Nov 11 175 12 4
2024 Nov 12 175 12 4
2024 Nov 13 180 8 3
2024 Nov 14 175 5 2
2024 Nov 15 170 12 4
2024 Nov 16 170 10 3
(NOAA)
