Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Mar 03 0201 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 February - 02 March 2025
Solar activity was at minor storm levels with five M-class flares observed from three different regions. Region 3998 (S14, L=115, class/area Ekc/430 on 24 Feb) produced an M1.3 at 25/0247 UTC and an M3.6/1f at 25/1159 UTC. The M3.6 flare had associated Type II (est. 630 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Region 4000 (N17, L=107, class/area Dai/180 on 24 Feb) also contributed two M-flares: an M3.2 at 24/0702 UTC and an M1.5/1n at 24/2101 UTC. The M3 flare had an associated Type II radio sweep (est. 677 km/s). Finally, Region 4001 (N24, L=176, class/area Dai/050 on 23 Feb) added an M1.3 flare at 24/0146 UTC. On 28 Feb, a Type II radio sweep (est. 1151 km/s) was observed and was attributed to what was likely Region 4001 that had rotated beyond the west limb. On 01 Mar, a large filament channel erupted from the SE quadrant of the solar disk. At the end of the day, a then unnumbered region in the SE produced a C9.5 flare. The associated CMEs were modeled and are expected to arrive at Earth by midday on 04 Mar.
The greater then 10 MeV proton flux levels exceeded the 10 pfu threshold (S1-minor) on 25 Feb at 0020 UTC and reached a peak of 37 pfu at 0240 UTC. Conditions were below the 10 pfu threshold on 24 Feb and 26 Feb-02 Mar.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 24 Feb - 01 Mar and high levels on 02 Mar, reaching 1,460 pfu at 1715 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity reached major storm levels (G2-moderate) on 27 Feb, with minor storm levels (G1-minor) observed on 28 Feb as positive polarity CH HSS influences dominated the solar wind environment. Unsettled to active conditions were observed on 26 Feb and 01 Mar as +CH HSS effects bookended the four day high speed wind event. Quiet conditions were prevelant on 02 Mar.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 March - 29 March 2025
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels, with a chance for periodic high levels, throughout the period as returning magnetcially complex regions transit then depart the solar disk on 03 -29 Mar.
There is a chance for isolated minor solar radiation storm levels throughout the period if any of the returning/developing magnetically complex regions are active and produce an event.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to moderate levels on 06-09 and 19-28 Mar. High levels are anticipated on 03-05, 10-18, and 29 Mar in response to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 03-09, 19-24, and 29 Mar. Active levels are expected on 10-18 and 25-28 Mar with possible G1 conditions on 12-15 Mar, associated with recurrent negative polarity CH HSS influences, and
again on 26-27 Mar, associated with recurrent positive polarity CH HSS effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 03 0201 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2025-03-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2025 Mar 03 140 8 3
2025 Mar 04 140 18 5
2025 Mar 05 140 25 5
2025 Mar 06 150 10 3
2025 Mar 07 150 5 2
2025 Mar 08 150 5 2
2025 Mar 09 150 8 3
2025 Mar 10 155 15 4
2025 Mar 11 160 15 4
2025 Mar 12 170 25 5
2025 Mar 13 180 30 5
2025 Mar 14 185 30 5
2025 Mar 15 185 20 5
2025 Mar 16 185 18 4
2025 Mar 17 180 15 4
2025 Mar 18 180 20 4
2025 Mar 19 185 8 3
2025 Mar 20 190 5 2
2025 Mar 21 195 5 2
2025 Mar 22 190 5 2
2025 Mar 23 190 5 2
2025 Mar 24 180 5 2
2025 Mar 25 170 15 4
2025 Mar 26 170 25 5
2025 Mar 27 160 25 5
2025 Mar 28 150 15 4
2025 Mar 29 150 5 2
(NOAA)
