Sunday, May 04, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins, May 5, 2025

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 May 05 0116 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 April - 04 May 2025



Solar activity reached moderate levels on 29 and 30 Apr due to M-Class flare activity. Region 4078 (N16, L=009, class/area=Cro/20 on 29 Apr) produced an M1.3/1N flare at 29/1002 UTC and an M1.6/1N flare at 29/1057 UTC. Region 4079 (N07, L=242, class/area=Ekc/1210 on 02 May) produced an M1.7 flare at 29/0513 UTC and an M2.0 flare at 30/0751 UTC, the largest of the period. Low levels were obsereved throughout the remainder of the period. No Earth-directed CME resulted from this week's flare activity. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 28 Apr - 01 May, and reached high levels on 02-04 May. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 28-29 Apr. Activity increased to active levels on 30 Apr, and reached G1 (Minor) levels on 01-05 May due to negative polarity coronal hole influence. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 May - 31 May 2025

Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low through the outlook period, with a varying chance for M-class flare activity. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to reach high levels from 05-12 May and 29-31 May. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 13-28 May. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 18 May and 29-31 May due to negative polarity coronal hole influence. Periods of active conditions are likely on 05-06 May, 09-11 May, 16-17 May, 19-21 May, and 27 May in response to CH HSS incluences. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 05 0116 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-05-05
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 May 05     160          18          5
2025 May 06     160          12          4
2025 May 07     160           6          2
2025 May 08     160           6          2
2025 May 09     165          15          4
2025 May 10     165          12          4
2025 May 11     165          10          3
2025 May 12     160           5          2
2025 May 13     155           5          2
2025 May 14     155           5          2
2025 May 15     155           5          2
2025 May 16     155          12          4
2025 May 17     155          12          4
2025 May 18     155          25          5
2025 May 19     155          10          3
2025 May 20     155           8          3
2025 May 21     160           8          3
2025 May 22     160           6          2
2025 May 23     160           6          2
2025 May 24     155           6          2
2025 May 25     155           5          2
2025 May 26     150           5          2
2025 May 27     150           8          3
2025 May 28     150          25          5
2025 May 29     150          30          5
2025 May 30     150          20          5
2025 May 31     155          20          5
(NOAA)