Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 May 19 0221 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact /www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 May 2025
Solar activity ranged from low to high. Region 4087 (N15, L=058, class/area=Dho/250 on 15 May) produced the strongest event of the period, an impulsive X2.7/2b flare (R3 - Strong) at 14/0825 UTC near the NE limb. A Type II radio sweep and Tenflare accompanied the event. The region also produced an M5.3 flare (R2 - Moderate) at 14/0325 UTC with a Type II radio sweep and an M7.7/1n flare (R2) at 14/1119 UTC. Finally, three R1 events were produced by the region on 14 and 15 May. Region 4086 (N07, L=207, class/area=Dao/060 on 13 May) also produced R3 event, with an X1.2/1b flare observed at 13/1538 UTC. Associated with that event was a Type II radio sweep and Tenflare.
Other activity included a DSF that lifted off of the Sun's northern hemisphere late on 12 May. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested the bulk of the ejecta would pass close but above Earth early on 17 May. No other Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, a weak enhancement, which peaked below the S1 (Minor) threshold, was observed on 13 May following the X1.2 event from Region 4086.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels 18 May following activity associated with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet levels on 12-13 May. Periods of southward Bz elevated geomagnetic activity to active levels on 14-15 May. Late on 16 May, enhancements in solar wind parameters, associated with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS and possible influence from the southern periphery of the CME that left the Sun on 12 May, increased activity to active levels. Total magnetic field strength reached peak levels of 22 nT on 17 May and the Bz component reached as far south as -17 nT. Solar wind speeds increased to around 500 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with conditions up to G2 (Moderate) levels. Wind speeds continued to increase to around 750-800 km/s by 18 May, but the decreased in magnetic field strength in the IMF only provoked a peak of G1 (Minor) conditions as the high-speed stream began to wane.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 May - 14 June 2025
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events, over the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to reach high levels on 19-23 May, 29 May - 05 Jun, and 14 Jun in response to recurrent coronal hole activity. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to elevated above quiet levels for most of the next 27 days due to multiple, recurrent, coronal hole features. G2 (moderate) conditions are likely on 29 May and 13 Jun; G1 (minor) conditions likely on 19 May, 28 May, and 14 Jun; active conditions are likely on 30 May - 01 Jun, and 10 Jun; unsettled levels are likely on 20-23 May, 27 May, 02-07 Jun, and 11-12 Jun. Quiet conditions are expected for the few remaining days of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 19 0222 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2025-05-19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2025 May 19 120 18 5
2025 May 20 115 12 3
2025 May 21 115 12 3
2025 May 22 115 10 3
2025 May 23 120 8 3
2025 May 24 120 6 2
2025 May 25 120 5 2
2025 May 26 120 5 2
2025 May 27 130 8 3
2025 May 28 135 25 5
2025 May 29 135 30 6
2025 May 30 140 20 4
2025 May 31 140 20 4
2025 Jun 01 140 20 4
2025 Jun 02 135 12 3
2025 Jun 03 135 8 3
2025 Jun 04 130 10 3
2025 Jun 05 125 12 3
2025 Jun 06 120 10 3
2025 Jun 07 115 10 3
2025 Jun 08 120 5 2
2025 Jun 09 115 5 2
2025 Jun 10 120 15 4
2025 Jun 11 120 12 3
2025 Jun 12 120 12 3
2025 Jun 13 115 30 6
2025 Jun 14 110 20 5
(NOAA)
