Monday, August 04, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins, August 4, 2025

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Aug 04 0137 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web  contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 July - 03 August 2025



Solar activity was at low levels on 28 Jul - 02 Aug and moderate (R1-Minor) levels on 03 Aug. The largest flare of the period was an M2.9/2b event observed from Region 4168 (N05, L-103, class/area Dai/060 on 03 Aug) at 03/1357 UTC. The region also produced numerous C-class events. Numerous C-class activity was observed from Regions 4153 (S30, L=217, class/area Dai/210 on 25 Jul), 4155 (S10, L=192, class/area Dai/070 on 26 Jul) and 4167 (N10, L=170, class/area Dki/430 on 03 Aug). No Earth-directed CME activity was observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 28 Jul, 31 Jul and 01 Aug with a maximum flux of 1,870 pfu observed at 28/1520 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 29-30 Jul and 02-03 Aug. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels the entire highlight period. A single active period was observed late on 03 Aug. A majority of the unsettled periods was due to weak negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds were at mostly 400 km/s from 28 Jul through midday on 30 Jul and 475-500 km/s from midday 30 Jul through 03 Aug with a peak velocity observed at 600 km/s late on 03 Aug. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 August - 30 August 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares for the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 12-18 Aug and 21-28 Aug all due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 04-11 Aug, 18-19 Aug and 39-30 Aug. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to G1 (Minor) storm levels on11-15 Aug, 18-22 Aug and 25-30 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on the remaining days of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 04 0137 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web ontact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-08-04
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Aug 04     145          12          4
2025 Aug 05     140          10          3
2025 Aug 06     140           8          3
2025 Aug 07     135           8          3
2025 Aug 08     135           5          2
2025 Aug 09     135           5          2
2025 Aug 10     135           5          2
2025 Aug 11     130          25          5
2025 Aug 12     130          18          5
2025 Aug 13     130          20          5
2025 Aug 14     135          12          4
2025 Aug 15     135           8          3
2025 Aug 16     145           5          2
2025 Aug 17     155           5          2
2025 Aug 18     155          15          5
2025 Aug 19     155          25          5
2025 Aug 20     150          15          5
2025 Aug 21     150           8          3
2025 Aug 22     150          12          4
2025 Aug 23     145           5          2
2025 Aug 24     145           5          2
2025 Aug 25     140           8          3
2025 Aug 26     140           8          3
2025 Aug 27     135          10          3
2025 Aug 28     135          12          4
2025 Aug 29     130           8          3
2025 Aug 30     125          10          3
(NOAA)