Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Aug 11 0200 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Solar activity was at moderate levels throughout the week. Region 4168 (N05, L=103, class/area=Eki/350 on 08 Aug) produced a total of fourteen M-class flares (R1-Minor events) this period, the largest being an M4.4/1b at 05/1553 UTC. The M4.4 flare was accompanied by Type-II (865 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, a 200 sfu Tenflare, and a CME first visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery at around 05/1700 UTC. This CME likely arrived at Earth on 08 Aug embedded with positive polarity CH HSS influence. No other Earth-directed CMEs resulted from the activity observed over 04-10 Aug.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels over 04-09 Aug, and increased to high levels on 10 Aug.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 04-05 Aug in response to waning negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions and a nominal solar wind environment prevailed over 06-07 Aug. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming were observed on 08 Aug due to the onset of CIR and positive polarity CH HSS influence, and likely the embedded 05 Aug CME. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming were observed on 09 Aug due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active levels were observed over 10 Aug as CH HSS influence weakened slightly.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 August - 06 September 2025
Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly low levels with M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate events) activity likely over 11 Aug-06 Sep.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 11-17, 21-22. 27-28 Aug, and on 06 Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 11 Aug due to waning positive polarity CH HSS influence. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 18-20 Aug, with periods of active conditions likely on 22 Aug, due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Active conditions are likely again on 28 Aug in response to the anticipated negative polarity CH HSS influence. Periods of G2 (Moderate) storming are likely on 05 Sep, with active levels likely on 04 and 06 Sep, due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 11 0200 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPCweb contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2025-08-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2025 Aug 11 155 18 4
2025 Aug 12 150 15 3
2025 Aug 13 145 12 3
2025 Aug 14 140 10 3
2025 Aug 15 140 10 3
2025 Aug 16 145 5 2
2025 Aug 17 150 5 2
2025 Aug 18 145 15 5
2025 Aug 19 145 25 5
2025 Aug 20 145 15 5
2025 Aug 21 140 8 3
2025 Aug 22 145 12 4
2025 Aug 23 150 5 2
2025 Aug 24 160 5 2
2025 Aug 25 160 8 3
2025 Aug 26 160 8 3
2025 Aug 27 160 10 3
2025 Aug 28 155 12 4
2025 Aug 29 145 8 3
2025 Aug 30 150 10 3
2025 Aug 31 150 10 3
2025 Sep 01 150 8 3
2025 Sep 02 150 5 2
2025 Sep 03 160 5 2
2025 Sep 04 155 18 4
2025 Sep 05 150 35 6
2025 Sep 06 150 20 4
(NOAA)
