RSGB
RadCom Assistant Editor | January 9, 2026
Now that the dust has settled after the New Year’s celebrations, we can get back to our regular propagation reports.
The New Year has started with minor disturbed geomagnetic conditions at times, plus lots of C-class solar flares, and a healthy dose of sunspots. As we slide down the slope towards sunspot minimum, we can expect more geomagnetic disturbances and raised Kp indices. But we should still have good HF conditions for a couple of years.
The Kp index hit 5 on 2 January, but has otherwise been relatively quiet, often registering less than 1 or 2. And the lack of M- and X-class solar flares means we have had no solar fade-outs.
With the solar flux index at more than 150 for much of the time, this bodes well for HF propagation and, as Propquest shows, the maximum usable frequency over 3,000km during daylight has often been more than 28MHz.
Unfortunately, this does decline quite quickly after sunset, leaving the maximum usable frequency below 10MHz most of the time. As we head towards spring, we can expect this to improve.
DX has been available. Stations worked include V51WH in Namibia on the 12m band using SSB, TZ4AM in Mali on 30m using CW, and ZS7ANF in Antarctica using CW on the 17m band.
Next week, NOAA predicts that the solar flux index will be in the 130 to 150 range.
Geomagnetic conditions are forecast to be variable, with the Kp index predicted to hit 5 on 13-14 January, and again 17-20 January.
So, we recommend you get your HF DXing in before 13 January and around 15-16 January, as propagation and maximum usable frequencies will no doubt be affected if the Kp index rises.
With the three-week 3Y0K Bouvet Island DXpedition set for early February, now may be a good time to sort out your antennas. Remember that Bouvet is almost due south from the UK, so plan accordingly. More propagation details will be made available nearer the time.
VHF and up propagation news from G3YLA and G4BAO:
The unsettled weather pattern continues to provide a variety of challenging weather types with heavy snow and rain, plus strong winds at times.
The nature of such patterns in January is that the timing and track of the lows are critical for the rain and snow outcome. Overall, it’s likely to be a cold system week with occasional brief milder interludes as Atlantic fronts move through in the middle of the coming week.
The effect on VHF and UHF propagation is limited with tropo unlikely, but there is a significant chance of rain or snow scatter at times for GHz operators.
There have been some slight increases in the Earth’s Kp index, which responds to solar activity. However, as we are between the peak periods of autumn and spring for aurora, it’s probably not a major player this time.
Meteor scatter has been a bit more interesting lately due to the peak of the Quadrantids meteor shower on 4 January. The shower has a short, intense peak, but spans the period from 28 December to 12 January. The next major shower isn’t until April, so it’s back to random activity from this weekend through to the late April Lyrids.
Lastly, a reminder that mid-winter Sporadic-E does happen. 6 January saw a nice early evening 6m band opening to the Baltic states, moving round to Ukraine and the Balkans later.
Recent Quadrantids meteors may have contributed some long-lived metallic ions, which can be focused into thin Sporadic-E patches. It’s always worth checking the Sporadic-E Layer Critical Frequency values plotted on the Propquest graphs for short spikes in the purple trace, which could be a sign of potential interest in Sporadic-E on the 10 and 6m bands.
For EME operators, Moon declination is negative again and we are past perigee, so path losses are increasing and Moon window length and peak elevation are reducing. 144MHz sky noise remains low but rising to high by Friday, 16 January.
And that’s all from the propagation team this week.
(Mike Terry, UK/BDXC)
