Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Jan 19 0216 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 January 2026
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Solar activity ranged from low to strong levels. Forty-five C-class, three M-class (R1-Minor) and one X-class (R3-Strong) activity was observed from various regions on the disk during the period. A majority of the activity was observed from Regions 4341 (S11, L=046, class/area Dkc/840 on 16 Jan), 4342 (N17, L=041, class/area Dso/180 on 16 Jan) and 4343 (S11, L=097, class/area Dki/310 on 16 Jan).
Region 4341 produced the following R1 (Minor) flare activity: an M1.6/1f at 14/2033 UTC, an M2.1/2b at 17/1029 UTC and an M1.1/2n at 17/2351 UTC. This region also produced an X1.9/3b long-duration event at 18/1809 UTC. Associated with this flare was a 693 km/s Type II sweep, a Type IV sweep, a 3,200 sfu Tenflare and a Castelli-U radio burst. An associated full-halo CME was first noted in GOES CCOR-1 imagery at about 18/1830 UTC. Additional coronagraph imagery will determine any Earth-directed component.
A 10 MeV at 10 pfu proton event at geosynchronous orbit (S1-Minor) was first observed at 18/2255 UTC. This event occurred in association with the X1.9 flare at 18/1830 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 12-18 Jan. A peak flux of 9,398 pfu was observed at 14/1645 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) throughout the period. Quiet to active levels were detected on 12-13 Jan associated with waning CME influence and effects from a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels were observed on 14 Jan. Unsettled to minor storm (R1-Minor) levels were detected on 15 through midday on 17 Jan. Unsettled to active levels were observed on the latter half of 17 Jan through 18 Jan due to positive polarity CH HSS.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 January - 14 February 2026
Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels, with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) levels over the next forecast period, all due to multiple regions on the visible disk as well as regions expected to return.
10 Mev at 10 pfu proton events (S1-Minor) are expected at geosynchronous orbit on 19-20 Jan.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 19-27 Jan and 12-14 Feb, all due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach (G1-Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 29 Jan and unsettled to active levels on 19-23, 27-28, 30-31 Jan, 04-11 and 13-14 Feb. All enhancements in activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jan 19 0216 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2026-01-19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2026 Jan 19 160 20 4
2026 Jan 20 165 16 4
2026 Jan 21 170 10 3
2026 Jan 22 175 8 3
2026 Jan 23 180 8 3
2026 Jan 24 180 5 2
2026 Jan 25 175 5 2
2026 Jan 26 170 5 2
2026 Jan 27 165 10 3
2026 Jan 28 160 15 4
2026 Jan 29 165 25 5
2026 Jan 30 165 12 4
2026 Jan 31 160 10 3
2026 Feb 01 155 5 2
2026 Feb 02 150 5 2
2026 Feb 03 145 5 2
2026 Feb 04 140 15 4
2026 Feb 05 130 12 4
2026 Feb 06 120 10 3
2026 Feb 07 125 8 3
2026 Feb 08 130 8 3
2026 Feb 09 135 10 3
2026 Feb 10 140 8 3
2026 Feb 11 135 8 3
2026 Feb 12 135 5 2
2026 Feb 13 135 20 4
2026 Feb 14 140 15 4
(NOAA)
