Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:
Issued: 2010 Feb 16 2151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 - 14 February 2010
Solar activity began the week at moderate levels on 08 February with 4 M-class events from Region 1045 (N23, L=256, class/area Fkc/420 on 08 February) as well as numerous C-class events. Activity levels decreased to low for 09-11 February as Region 1045 showed steady decay and simplification. However, late on 10 February Region 1046 (N23, L=185, class/area Eac/190 on 11 February) began to grow and began to produce C-level flare activity on 11 February. Activity levels increased to high on 12 February due to an M8/Sn flare at 1126 UTC from Region 1046. The event was associated with a partial halo CME that was primarily directed off the northeast limb and had an approximate plane of sky speed of 550 km/s. Region 1045 also managed to produce an M1/2f flare at 12/1808 UTC. Activity returned to low levels for 13-14 February. Regions 1045 and 1046 both showed a declining trend. New Region 1048 (N20, L=096, class/area Bxo/010 on 14 February) began to rotate around the east limb on 13 February and produced a C9 flare at 13/1239 UTC.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels. The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with the exception of some brief isolated unsettled periods. Real-time solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed a small increase in velocity, density and total field late on 10 February lasting partway through 11 February. However, these changes were not sufficient to increase geomagnetic activity significantly.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 February - 15 March 2010
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low with a slight chance for isolated intervals of moderate levels throughout the forecast period. Region 1048 appears to be the most likely source for elevated activity although old Region 1045 is due to return on 28 February and may also contribute to elevated activity levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through most of the period.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for 17-19 February as a series of CME’s associated with activity from Regions 1045 and 1046 could possibly impact the Earth during this time frame. Quiet levels are expected to predominate for 20-28 February. An increase to unsettled with a chance for active periods is possible on 01-02 March due to a recurrent high speed stream. Activity levels are expected to return to quiet for 03-15 March.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Feb 16 2151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Feb 16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Feb 17 84 10 3
2010 Feb 18 84 10 3
2010 Feb 19 84 10 3
2010 Feb 20 84 5 2
2010 Feb 21 82 5 2
2010 Feb 22 82 5 2
2010 Feb 23 82 5 2
2010 Feb 24 80 5 2
2010 Feb 25 80 5 2
2010 Feb 26 75 5 2
2010 Feb 27 75 5 2
2010 Feb 28 80 5 2
2010 Mar 01 85 10 3
2010 Mar 02 85 10 3
2010 Mar 03 85 5 2
2010 Mar 04 85 5 2
2010 Mar 05 85 5 2
2010 Mar 06 85 5 2
2010 Mar 07 90 5 2
2010 Mar 08 90 5 2
2010 Mar 09 90 5 2
2010 Mar 10 90 5 2
2010 Mar 11 90 5 2
2010 Mar 12 90 5 2
2010 Mar 13 90 5 2
2010 Mar 14 85 5 2
2010 Mar 15 85 5 2
(NOAA)
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 - 14 February 2010
Solar activity began the week at moderate levels on 08 February with 4 M-class events from Region 1045 (N23, L=256, class/area Fkc/420 on 08 February) as well as numerous C-class events. Activity levels decreased to low for 09-11 February as Region 1045 showed steady decay and simplification. However, late on 10 February Region 1046 (N23, L=185, class/area Eac/190 on 11 February) began to grow and began to produce C-level flare activity on 11 February. Activity levels increased to high on 12 February due to an M8/Sn flare at 1126 UTC from Region 1046. The event was associated with a partial halo CME that was primarily directed off the northeast limb and had an approximate plane of sky speed of 550 km/s. Region 1045 also managed to produce an M1/2f flare at 12/1808 UTC. Activity returned to low levels for 13-14 February. Regions 1045 and 1046 both showed a declining trend. New Region 1048 (N20, L=096, class/area Bxo/010 on 14 February) began to rotate around the east limb on 13 February and produced a C9 flare at 13/1239 UTC.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels. The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with the exception of some brief isolated unsettled periods. Real-time solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed a small increase in velocity, density and total field late on 10 February lasting partway through 11 February. However, these changes were not sufficient to increase geomagnetic activity significantly.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 February - 15 March 2010
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low with a slight chance for isolated intervals of moderate levels throughout the forecast period. Region 1048 appears to be the most likely source for elevated activity although old Region 1045 is due to return on 28 February and may also contribute to elevated activity levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through most of the period.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for 17-19 February as a series of CME’s associated with activity from Regions 1045 and 1046 could possibly impact the Earth during this time frame. Quiet levels are expected to predominate for 20-28 February. An increase to unsettled with a chance for active periods is possible on 01-02 March due to a recurrent high speed stream. Activity levels are expected to return to quiet for 03-15 March.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Feb 16 2151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Feb 16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Feb 17 84 10 3
2010 Feb 18 84 10 3
2010 Feb 19 84 10 3
2010 Feb 20 84 5 2
2010 Feb 21 82 5 2
2010 Feb 22 82 5 2
2010 Feb 23 82 5 2
2010 Feb 24 80 5 2
2010 Feb 25 80 5 2
2010 Feb 26 75 5 2
2010 Feb 27 75 5 2
2010 Feb 28 80 5 2
2010 Mar 01 85 10 3
2010 Mar 02 85 10 3
2010 Mar 03 85 5 2
2010 Mar 04 85 5 2
2010 Mar 05 85 5 2
2010 Mar 06 85 5 2
2010 Mar 07 90 5 2
2010 Mar 08 90 5 2
2010 Mar 09 90 5 2
2010 Mar 10 90 5 2
2010 Mar 11 90 5 2
2010 Mar 12 90 5 2
2010 Mar 13 90 5 2
2010 Mar 14 85 5 2
2010 Mar 15 85 5 2
(NOAA)
