Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2010 Feb 23 2251 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 - 21 February 2010
Solar activity began the week with low levels on 15 February, with a C1.9 flare from Region 1048 (N21, L=097, class/area Bxo/010 on 15 February). Activity levels decreased to very low for the rest of the period, as Regions 1046 (N24, L=183, class/area Cao/040 on 15
February) and 1048 showed steady decay and simplification, and decayed to spotless plage on 18 February. Region 1049 (S19, L=120, class/area Dsi/060 on 20 February) emerged on the disk on 18 February and produced several B-class flares.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels.
An interplanetary shock passage was observed on the ACE spacecraft at approximately 15/1725 UTC, followed by a weak geomagnetic sudden impulse at 15/1832 UTC (02 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). The shock was likely associated with an impulsive M8.3/1n flare that occurred
on 12/1126 UTC. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on 15-16 February, with an isolated minor storm period observed at high latitudes between 16/0900-1200 UTC. The increased levels were due to periods of enhancement of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) associated with a CME passage. The southward component of the IMF showed a minimum of -13 nT at 15/1752 UTC, and the total field showed a maximum of 14nT at 15/1815 UTC. Activity decreased to predominantly quiet levels on 17 February. On 18 February, quiet
levels were observed at mid-latitudes, while quiet to unsettled, with a single active period was observed at high latitudes. Predominantly quiet levels were observed for the rest of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 February - 22 March 2010
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly at very low levels through 31 January. Activity is expected to increase to predominantly low levels with a slight chance for isolated intervals
of moderate levels from 01-15 February, as old Region 1045 is expected to return on 01 February. Predominantly very low levels are expected on 16 February through the rest of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through most of the period.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for 24-28 February. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 01-02 March, due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected to predominate for 03-14 March. Quiet, with isolated
unsettled levels are expected on 15-16 March. Activity is expected to return to quiet levels for 17-22 March.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt:Issued: 2010 Feb 23 2251 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Feb 23
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Feb 24 84 5 2
2010 Feb 25 82 5 2
2010 Feb 26 80 5 2
2010 Feb 27 78 5 2
2010 Feb 28 80 6 2
2010 Mar 01 82 7 3
2010 Mar 02 84 7 3
2010 Mar 03 85 5 2
2010 Mar 04 85 5 2
2010 Mar 05 85 5 2
2010 Mar 06 85 5 2
2010 Mar 07 90 5 2
2010 Mar 08 90 5 2
2010 Mar 09 90 5 2
2010 Mar 10 90 5 2
2010 Mar 11 90 5 2
2010 Mar 12 90 5 2
2010 Mar 13 90 5 2
2010 Mar 14 85 5 2
2010 Mar 15 85 8 3
2010 Mar 16 84 7 2
2010 Mar 17 82 5 2
2010 Mar 18 80 5 2
2010 Mar 19 78 5 2
2010 Mar 20 76 5 2
2010 Mar 21 76 5 2
2010 Mar 22 80 5 2
(NOAA)
