Monday, December 19, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2022 Dec 19 0151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 December 2022

Solar activity reached high levels on 14-16 Dec, and low levels were observed on 12-13 and 18 Dec. Region 3165 (S19, L=279, class/area=Ekc/340 on 15 Dec) produced the bulk of this period's M-flare activity. In total 29 M-class flares were observed during this period, of which two exceeded R2 (Moderate) levels (an M6/2b flare at 14/1442 UTC and an M5 flare at 15/2240 UTC). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during this period. 

No proton events were observed in geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 12-13 Dec, and quiet on 14-18 Dec. K-index calculations were unavailable due to an outage on 16-17 Dec. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 December - 14 January 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events and a slight chance for R3 or greater events throughout the forecast period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-24 Dec, and 26 Dec-02 Jan. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 19-21, 25 Dec, and 03-14 Jan. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 21, 25-28 Dec, and 03 Jan due to CH HSS influences. Active levels are likely on 19-20, 22, 29, 31 Dec. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
the forecast period. 

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 19 0152 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-12-19
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Dec 19     150          12          4
2022 Dec 20     145          10          4
2022 Dec 21     130          20          5
2022 Dec 22     120          12          4
2022 Dec 23     118           8          3
2022 Dec 24     118           5          2
2022 Dec 25     120          18          5
2022 Dec 26     125          20          5
2022 Dec 27     127          20          5
2022 Dec 28     130          20          5
2022 Dec 29     130          12          4
2022 Dec 30     135          10          3
2022 Dec 31     138          12          4
2023 Jan 01     140           8          3
2023 Jan 02     150           5          2
2023 Jan 03     155          18          5
2023 Jan 04     160          10          3
2023 Jan 05     160          10          3
2023 Jan 06     160           8          3
2023 Jan 07     160          10          3
2023 Jan 08     158           6          2
2023 Jan 09     156           5          2
2023 Jan 10     154           5          2
2023 Jan 11     154           5          2
2023 Jan 12     152           5          2
2023 Jan 13     150           5          2
2023 Jan 14     150           5          3
(NOAA)