Tuesday, December 27, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Dec 26 0226 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 December 2022

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 20 Dec. Region 3169 (N19,  L=116, class/area=Dho/290 on 21 Dec) produced an M1/Sf at 20/1406 UTC which was the largest event of the period. Low levels of solar activity and C-class flare activity were observed throughout the remainder of the period. A CME from 24 Dec was determined to have an Earth-directed component and is expected to arrive on 27 Dec. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected this period. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 24-25 Dec, and normal to moderate levels were observed on 17-23 Dec. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached minor storm levels on 23 Dec, and active levels on 19, 22, and 24 Dec, all due to CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled field activity was observed throughout the remainder of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 December - 21 January 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low throughout the period with a slight chance for M-class flare activity. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 26 Dec-03 Jan, and 20-21 Jan. Normal to moderate levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels on 27 Dec due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 24 Dec in addition to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Minor storms are expected again on 03 Jan and 19-20 Jan due to the influences of multiple recurrent CH HSSs. Active conditions are expected on 28, 30-31 Dec and 04, 18 Jan. Quiet and quiet to unsettled activity are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 26 0226 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-12-26
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Dec 26     135          10          3
2022 Dec 27     136          30          5
2022 Dec 28     138          15          4
2022 Dec 29     132          10          3
2022 Dec 30     134          15          4
2022 Dec 31     132          12          4
2023 Jan 01     130          10          3
2023 Jan 02     130           5          2
2023 Jan 03     135          18          5
2023 Jan 04     140          10          4
2023 Jan 05     140          10          3
2023 Jan 06     140           8          3
2023 Jan 07     140          10          3
2023 Jan 08     140           5          2
2023 Jan 09     136           5          2
2023 Jan 10     130           5          2
2023 Jan 11     135           5          2
2023 Jan 12     130           5          2
2023 Jan 13     130           5          2
2023 Jan 14     130           5          3
2023 Jan 15     128           5          2
2023 Jan 16     125           5          2
2023 Jan 17     120           8          3
2023 Jan 18     120          12          4
2023 Jan 19     120          25          5
2023 Jan 20     120          20          5
2023 Jan 21     125          10          3
(NOAA)