Monday, July 29, 2013

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Jul 29 0846 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 July 2013

Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the week was a C3/Sf from Region 1800 (S08, L=162, class/area=Dao/220) at 28/1223 UTC. Region 1800 was the largest, most magnetically complex (beta-gamma), and most productive region on the visible disk this week. The remaining regions were generally small and docile in comparison. While a few coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed throughout the week, analysis suggested none were Earth-directed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels from 22-25 July and again on 27 July. Remarkably, 25 July marked the last day of a 16 day streak of high electron flux
levels which began on 10 July.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout most of the week, with the exception of 25-26 July. On those two days, planetary conditions reached active levels with a single period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes. The increased activity came in response to the onset of a recurrent,positive-polarity, coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels returned on 27 July and lasted through the end of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 July - 24 August 2013

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1 radio blackouts) flares through the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels through 02 August, and and again after 22 August in response to recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period, barring any geoeffective transient features. There is a chance for active levels on 03-04 August and again on 21-23 August in response to recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jul 29 0847 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-07-29
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Jul 29     110           7          2
2013 Jul 30     120           5          2
2013 Jul 31     120           5          2
2013 Aug 01     115           5          2
2013 Aug 02     115           8          3
2013 Aug 03     115          12          3
2013 Aug 04     110          12          3
2013 Aug 05     110           8          3
2013 Aug 06     110           5          2
2013 Aug 07     105           5          2
2013 Aug 08     110           5          2
2013 Aug 09     105           8          3
2013 Aug 10     105           8          3
2013 Aug 11     105           8          3
2013 Aug 12     105           5          2
2013 Aug 13     100           5          2
2013 Aug 14     105           8          3
2013 Aug 15     105           8          3
2013 Aug 16     105           5          2
2013 Aug 17     105           5          2
2013 Aug 18     105           5          2
2013 Aug 19     100           5          2
2013 Aug 20     100           5          2
2013 Aug 21     100          10          3
2013 Aug 22     100          15          3
2013 Aug 23     100          10          3
2013 Aug 24     100           5          2
(NOAA)