Monday, June 13, 2016

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jun 13 0444 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 June 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels from 06-08 June and again on  10 June. Low levels were reached on 09 June and again from 11-12 June due to C-class flare activity from Region 2552 (N15, L=359, class/area Dao/150 on 11 June). The largest flare of the period was a C6 at 11/2228 UTC. Region 2552 grew rapidly since its emergence on 07 June to a compact beta-delta magnetic class, but appeared to be in decay by 11 Jun as it neared the NW limb. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 06 June and again from 11-12 June. High levels were reached from 07-10 June with a peak flux of 1,590 pfu observed at 10/1520 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2-Moderate geomagnetic storm levels during the period. The period began with solar wind speeds near 650 km/s and total field values near 7 nT while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 6 nT under the slowly waning influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). As a result, mostly active levels and an isolated
G2-Moderate storm period were observed during the first half of the UTC day on 06 June. Solar wind speeds continued to decrease to nominal levels by 10 June. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 07 June with quiet conditions on 08-09 June. By midday on 10 June, a solar sector boundary crossing was observed into a positive (away) sector followed by an increase in total field to 14 nT by late on 10 June. A lesser rise in solar wind speed to near 540 km/s was observed as a positive polarity CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds continued to be elevated in the 450 km/s to 550 km/s range for the rest of the period with total field ranging between 7-10 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active periods on 10-11 June and quiet to unsettled levels on 12 June.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 June - 09 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 17-18 June, 26 June-01 July and 04-07 July in response to CH HSS activity.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 13, 15-17, 22-24, 26-27 June and from 02-03, 07-09 July with G1-Minor storming likely on 02-03 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 13 0444 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-06-13
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Jun 13      92           8          3
2016 Jun 14      92           5          2
2016 Jun 15      92           8          3
2016 Jun 16      95          12          4
2016 Jun 17      95           8          3
2016 Jun 18      95           5          2
2016 Jun 19      95           5          2
2016 Jun 20      95           5          2
2016 Jun 21      95           5          2
2016 Jun 22      92           5          2
2016 Jun 23      90          10          3
2016 Jun 24      85          12          4
2016 Jun 25      85           8          3
2016 Jun 26      85          10          3
2016 Jun 27      85          10          3
2016 Jun 28      85           5          2
2016 Jun 29      85           5          2
2016 Jun 30      85           5          2
2016 Jul 01      80           5          2
2016 Jul 02      80          25          5
2016 Jul 03      80          20          5
2016 Jul 04      80           8          3
2016 Jul 05      80           5          2
2016 Jul 06      85           5          2
2016 Jul 07      85           8          3
2016 Jul 08      85          10          3
2016 Jul 09      85           8          3
(NOAA)