Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jun 20 0550 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 June 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels the majority of the period with low levels observed on 13 and 19 June due to a C3 flare at 13/0552 UTC from Region 2552 (N15, L=359, class/area Dao/150 on 11 June) and a C1 flare at 19/1158 UTC from Region 2558 (N13, L=215, class/area Cso/030 on 19 June). The majority of the B-class activity was caused by Region 2555 (S09, L=274, class/area Cao/080 on 17 June). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period and briefly reached high levels on 19 June with a maximum flux of 1,030 pfu at 19/1640 UTC.
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G2-Moderate storm levels. Solar wind conditions began the period under a waning positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds decreased from approximately 620 km/s to around 420 km/s by midday on 14 June. Total field decreased from 8 nT to 4 nT. By late on 14 June, total field increased to 15 nT with the Bz component mostly southward near -14 nT while solar wind increased to a maximum of 772 km/s at 15/0410 UTC, indicative of a co-rotating interaction region followed by another positive polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 13 June, quiet to G2-Moderate storm levels on 14 June and quiet to G1-Minor storm levels on 15 June. By early on 16 June, total field decreased to around 6 nT with solar wind speeds in the 500-600 km/s range. These conditions continued until 19 June when solar wind speeds decreased to nominal levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 16 and 19 June with quiet to unsettled levels on 17-18 June.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 June - 16 July 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 20-22 June, 26 June-01 July, 04-07 July and again on 16 July due to CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 23-27 June, 02-03 July, 07-12 July and 14-15 July. G1-Minor storm levels are likely on 02-03 July and 11 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 20 0550 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-06-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Jun 20 85 5 2
2016 Jun 21 85 5 2
2016 Jun 22 80 5 2
2016 Jun 23 75 8 3
2016 Jun 24 75 12 4
2016 Jun 25 78 8 3
2016 Jun 26 78 12 3
2016 Jun 27 80 10 3
2016 Jun 28 85 5 2
2016 Jun 29 85 5 2
2016 Jun 30 85 5 2
2016 Jul 01 80 5 2
2016 Jul 02 80 25 5
2016 Jul 03 80 20 5
2016 Jul 04 80 8 3
2016 Jul 05 80 5 2
2016 Jul 06 85 5 2
2016 Jul 07 85 8 3
2016 Jul 08 88 10 3
2016 Jul 09 90 10 3
2016 Jul 10 90 8 3
2016 Jul 11 90 20 5
2016 Jul 12 88 15 3
2016 Jul 13 88 5 2
2016 Jul 14 88 8 3
2016 Jul 15 85 8 3
2016 Jul 16 85 5 2
(NOAA)
