:Issued: 2016 Nov 07 0425 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 October - 06 November 2016
Solar activity was very low through the period with only a few isolated low-level B-class flaring observed from Regions 2604 (N07, L=261, class/area Bxo/010 on 29 October) and 2605 (N07, L=191, class/area Cro/030 on 31 October). Other activity included several filament eruptions. The first was a filament eruption centered near S10W40 observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 04/0230 UTC with an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in coronagraph imagery off the west limb beginning at 04/0736 UTC. The second filament eruption occurred between 05/0200-0500 UTC in SDO/AIA 193 imagery centered near N24W15. An associated partial halo CME was
observed in coronagraph imagery beginning at 05/0424 UTC. WSA Enlil modelling of the CMEs predicted an arrival approximately early to midday on 08 November. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the period with a maximum flux of 21,357 pfu at 31/2030 UTC. Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind parameters were in decline over the period on the trailing end
of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed declined steadily from near 580 km/s to around 305 km/s by the end of the period. Total field ranged from 1 nT to 8 nT
with prolonged periods of southward Bz from 02-03 November. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on 31 October-01 November and 04 November, quiet to active levels on 02-03 November, and quiet levels on 05-06 November.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 November - 03 December 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares over the forecast period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be moderate levels with high levels likely on 07, 10-19, and 22 November-03 December due to CH HSS influence. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 08 November and unsettled levels on 09 November due to the arrival of the 04 and 05 November CMEs. Unsettled to active levels are also expected from 10-15 and 19-30 November with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 12-13, 21-23, and 25 November and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 21-22 November due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 07 0425 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-11-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Nov 07 75 8 3
2016 Nov 08 75 20 4
2016 Nov 09 78 8 3
2016 Nov 10 78 10 3
2016 Nov 11 78 12 4
2016 Nov 12 78 20 5
2016 Nov 13 78 18 5
2016 Nov 14 78 10 3
2016 Nov 15 78 8 3
2016 Nov 16 78 5 2
2016 Nov 17 78 5 2
2016 Nov 18 78 5 2
2016 Nov 19 77 8 3
2016 Nov 20 75 15 4
2016 Nov 21 78 54 6
2016 Nov 22 78 42 6
2016 Nov 23 79 24 5
2016 Nov 24 79 18 4
2016 Nov 25 79 22 5
2016 Nov 26 78 18 4
2016 Nov 27 77 12 3
2016 Nov 28 77 10 3
2016 Nov 29 76 8 3
2016 Nov 30 76 8 3
2016 Dec 01 77 5 2
2016 Dec 02 77 5 2
2016 Dec 03 77 5 2
(NOAA)
