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Monday, November 06, 2017
Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Nov 06 0429 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 October - 05 November 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels. There were no observable flares reported and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 30 Oct - 01 Nov, moderate levels on 02 Nov, and
normal levels on 03-05 Nov. The largest flux of the period was 3,668 pfu observed at 30/1610 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
The period began under nominal solar wind conditions with wind speeds ranging between 260 to 320 km/s and total field measurements between 1 and 4 nT. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 30 Oct - 01 Nov. At approximately 02/0100 UTC, wind speeds began to increase and total field became enhanced due to the arrival of a weak, negative polarity, coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speed continued to increase to a period high of 458 km/s at 04/1701 UTC, total field achieved a max of 14 nT at 02/1115 UTC and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field dropped to a low of -7 nT at 02/1944 UTC as a result of this feature. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active conditions on 02-03 Nov.
The remainder of the period was indicative of waning CH HSS influence with decreasing wind speeds and less enhanced total field. Quiet conditions were observed on 04-05 Nov.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 November - 02 December 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period (06 Nov - 02 Dec) due to an absence of returning sunspots and a spotless solar disk. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to be at high levels on 08-15, 17-18, 21-28 Nov with very high levels on 11-14 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 06-12, 15-17, 20-22, 29-30 Nov, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 07-11, 20-22 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Nov 06 0429 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-11-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Nov 06 71 10 3
2017 Nov 07 70 27 5
2017 Nov 08 70 30 5
2017 Nov 09 70 30 5
2017 Nov 10 70 28 5
2017 Nov 11 70 25 5
2017 Nov 12 70 10 3
2017 Nov 13 70 5 2
2017 Nov 14 71 5 2
2017 Nov 15 72 10 3
2017 Nov 16 73 10 3
2017 Nov 17 75 10 3
2017 Nov 18 75 5 2
2017 Nov 19 75 5 2
2017 Nov 20 75 20 5
2017 Nov 21 75 20 5
2017 Nov 22 75 20 5
2017 Nov 23 75 5 2
2017 Nov 24 75 5 2
2017 Nov 25 75 5 2
2017 Nov 26 75 5 2
2017 Nov 27 75 5 2
2017 Nov 28 75 5 2
2017 Nov 29 75 10 3
2017 Nov 30 75 10 3
2017 Dec 01 72 5 2
2017 Dec 02 71 5 2
(NOAA)