:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Nov 18 0220 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 November 2024
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Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels this period. R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 11 Nov, 13 Nov and 15-16 Nov. Regions 3889 (S09, L=006, class/area Fki/540 on 15 Nov) and 3893 (S19, L=289, class/area Cso/050 on 15 Nov) produced a majority of the activity this period. The largest flare of the period was an M1.7 event observed on 13/1708 UTC from Region 3889. During the period, a total of 33 C-class and 7 M-class flares were observed. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 11 Nov and 13-17 Nov, all associated with positive polarity coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). During the period, solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels through early on 14 Nov. Early on 14 Nov, total field increased to 14 nT, while the Bz component dropped to -13 nT. Wind speeds increased from about 305 km/s to a peak of about 460 km/s by late on 15 Nov. Wind speeds ended the period near 310 km/s. The phi angle was in a predominately positive sector throughout the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 November - 14 December 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels (R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate), with a chance for high levels (R3 - Strong) from 18 Nov - 14 Dec. The disk is expected to feature numerous complex regions throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However, there is a chance for proton activity following significant solar flare activity during the outlook period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be at unsettled to active periods on 18 Nov, 20 Nov, 25-27 Nov, 30 Nov-03 Dec, 06-08 Dec and 11-14 Dec, all due to the influence from recurrent CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet periods are likely on 19 Nov, 21-24 Nov, 28-29 Nov,
04-05 Dec and 09-10 Dec.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 18 0221 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-11-18
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Nov 18 230 8 3
2024 Nov 19 235 5 2
2024 Nov 20 235 12 4
2024 Nov 21 240 5 2
2024 Nov 22 240 5 2
2024 Nov 23 240 5 2
2024 Nov 24 245 5 2
2024 Nov 25 245 10 3
2024 Nov 26 240 10 3
2024 Nov 27 245 8 3
2024 Nov 28 255 5 2
2024 Nov 29 250 5 2
2024 Nov 30 250 10 3
2024 Dec 01 240 12 4
2024 Dec 02 230 9 3
2024 Dec 03 220 8 3
2024 Dec 04 210 7 2
2024 Dec 05 205 5 2
2024 Dec 06 205 12 4
2024 Dec 07 200 12 4
2024 Dec 08 180 10 3
2024 Dec 09 170 5 2
2024 Dec 10 150 5 2
2024 Dec 11 145 10 3
2024 Dec 12 145 15 3
2024 Dec 13 140 10 3
2024 Dec 14 145 8 3
(NOA)
