Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Nov 25 0217 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact /www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 November 2024
Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels this period. R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 18 Nov, 20 Nov and 22-24 Nov. Numerous regions produced R1 (Minor) activity, but a majority of the M-class flares were produced from Regions 3897 (S12, L=347, class/area Dao/220 on 20 Nov) and 3901 (S08, L=218, class/area Dao/200 on 19 Nov). The largest event of the period was an M3.7 at 18/1253 UTC produced by Region 3901. During the period, a total of
49 C-class and 15 M-flares were observed.
A 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit was observed on 21-22 Nov. The S1 (Minor) event began at 21/1925 UTC, reached a peak of S2 (Moderate) of 125 pfu at 22/0355 UTC and ended at 22/1845 UTC. A 100 MeV proton event at geosynchoronous orbit was observed on 21-22 Nov. The event began at 21/1845 UTC, reached a peak of 7.4 pfu at 21/2010 UTC and ended at 22/0305 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Unsettled levels were observed on 19-23 Nov with isolated active levels observed on 19 Nov, 22 Nov and 24 Nov. On 19 Nov, the field was influenced by waning positive coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects and weak effects from a 14 Nov CME. On 20-23 Nov, the field was influenced by negative polarity CH HSS effects. The solar wind environment was pretty steady throughout the highlight period. Total field varied between 3-13 nT, while the Bz component varied between +8 nT to -10 nT. The wind field was steady at 400 km/s +/-50 km/s. The phi angle was in a positive sector through 20 Nov and negative through the rest of the highlight period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 November - 21 December 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels (R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate), with a chance for high levels (R3 - Strong) from 25 Nov - 21 Dec. The disk is expected to feature numerous complex regions thoroughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However, there is a chance for proton activity following significant solar flare activity during the outlook period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be at unsettled to active periods on 29-30 Nov, 06-08 Dec, 11-14 Dec and 16-20 Dec, the first three due to influence from recurrent positive coronal hole effects and the last to a recurrent negative coronal hole. Mostly quiet periods are likely on 25-28 Nov, 01-05 Dec, 09-10 Dec, 15 Dec, and 21 Dec.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 25 0218 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-11-25
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Nov 25 205 5 2
2024 Nov 26 210 5 2
2024 Nov 27 210 5 2
2024 Nov 28 210 5 2
2024 Nov 29 210 8 3
2024 Nov 30 205 8 3
2024 Dec 01 205 5 2
2024 Dec 02 205 5 2
2024 Dec 03 205 5 2
2024 Dec 04 205 7 2
2024 Dec 05 205 5 2
2024 Dec 06 210 12 4
2024 Dec 07 215 12 4
2024 Dec 08 220 10 3
2024 Dec 09 215 5 2
2024 Dec 10 215 5 2
2024 Dec 11 215 10 3
2024 Dec 12 215 15 3
2024 Dec 13 210 10 3
2024 Dec 14 215 8 3
2024 Dec 15 215 5 2
2024 Dec 16 215 8 3
2024 Dec 17 215 8 3
2024 Dec 18 220 8 3
2024 Dec 19 215 12 3
2024 Dec 20 205 8 3
2024 Dec 21 205 5 2
(NOAA)
