Monday, July 21, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jul 21 0208 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact # www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 July 2025

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C7.6 from Region 4136 (N20, L=17, class/area=Cao/210 on 20 Jul) at 20/0741 UTC. C-class activity was also observed from several other regiond during the highlight period. No Earth-directed CME activity was observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 14-20 Jul in response to persistent positive polarity CH HSS influence. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 14, 15, and 17 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds were elevated to as high as 700 km/s on 15 and 17 Jul. The remaining days were at quiet to active levels despite enhanced solar wind parameters. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 July - 16 August 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor to Moderate) flares for the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 21-22 Jul, 24-30 Jul, 5-6 Aug, and 10-16 Aug all due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Low to moderate levels are expected on the remaining days. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 23 Jul, 1-4 Aug and, 7-14 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on the remaining days of the outlook peirod. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 21 0208 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-07-21
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Jul 21     145           5          2
2025 Jul 22     140           5          2
2025 Jul 23     140          15          4
2025 Jul 24     142          10          3
2025 Jul 25     138           5          2
2025 Jul 26     135           5          2
2025 Jul 27     135           5          2
2025 Jul 28     130           5          2
2025 Jul 29     130           5          2
2025 Jul 30     130           5          2
2025 Jul 31     130           5          2
2025 Aug 01     130          15          4
2025 Aug 02     130          20          5
2025 Aug 03     125          18          4
2025 Aug 04     128          12          4
2025 Aug 05     130           5          2
2025 Aug 06     132           5          2
2025 Aug 07     138          20          4
2025 Aug 08     140          15          4
2025 Aug 09     138          25          5
2025 Aug 10     135          18          4
2025 Aug 11     135          25          5
2025 Aug 12     130          18          4
2025 Aug 13     130          20          5
2025 Aug 14     130          12          4
2025 Aug 15     125           8          3
2025 Aug 16     130           5          2
(NOAA)