U.K. Propagation Forecast

 

RSGB

RadCom Assistant Editor | March 6, 2026

What a difference a week makes…

In our last report, we mentioned that there were zero sunspots and a solar flux index of 130. This week has seen a turnaround with five active sunspot regions and a solar flux index of 144.

HF propagation has been reasonable with openings up to 10m to various parts of the world. We have only seen M-class solar flares, although there have been around 40 of them in the past five days.

We had a brief excursion in the Kp index when it went to 5 during one three-hour period, late on 3 March. However, it soon recovered and has been at 2 or lower for the past two days at the time of writing.

The effects of a small Earth-facing coronal hole started coming past the Earth on 6 March and is expected to be the source of a solar wind stream. According to NOAA and the Space Weather Prediction Centre, Active to Minor G1 geomagnetic storming will be possible today, 8 March.

We have now seen the start of the 3Y0K Bouvet Island DXpedition, which is due to run until around 17 March. It has already been worked from the UK on bands from 40 to 12m.

Bouvet is virtually due south from the UK and the higher bands should be open from around 0700 to around 1900UTC. The 40 and 30m bands should open from around 2000 to 0400UTC. So, there are plenty of opportunities to work the station.

Next week, the Space Weather Prediction Centre in the US forecasts that the solar flux index may be around 156 today, 8 March, but will then decline to be in the 120s or even 110s later in the week.

We may have slightly unsettled geomagnetic conditions around 10-12 March and again on 14-15 March, with an estimated Kp index of 4.

In summary, HF conditions are not bad. Keep an eye on solarham.com  for daily updates.

VHF and up propagation news from G3YLA and G4BAO:

The recent change of weather to introduce high pressure onto the scene provided some welcome enhanced tropo conditions in the last week.

The March RSGB 144MHz and 432MHz Championship should still be able to benefit, except perhaps for the northwestern fringe of the UK where the next Atlantic fronts will be making an intervention.

It looks a little more problematic for the 432MHz UK Activity Contest on Tuesday, 10 March. The same is true for the RSGB 50MHz UK Activity Contest on Thursday, 12 March as the low-pressure pattern returns and offers a chance of rain scatter for the microwave bands.

The meteor scatter prospects are still driven by random activity, so as usual a preference for the early hours of the morning are called for on this mode.

It has been mentioned before that the Spring and Autumn are periods when auroras are more likely. This is known as the Russell-McPherron effect when the Earth’s magnetic field is better coupled to the solar wind.

So, keep monitoring the Kp index for signs of it going above 5. Then check the bands for fluttery signals, even on the LF bands. CW can be used as an early ‘heads up’ for potential activity on the VHF bands.

Thoughts about Sporadic-E should be kept in check for a while yet since we are still very far away from the usual start of the season.

For EME, Moon declination is negative and falling to a minimum next Thursday, meaning shortening Moon windows and lower peak elevation until then.

Path losses are falling until apogee on Tuesday, 10 March. 144MHz Sky noise is moderate, rising to a high of more than 3000 Kelvin on Thursday and falling back by next weekend.

https://rsgb.org/main/blog/news/gb2rs/propagation-news/2026/03/06/propagation-news-8-march-2026/

(Mike Terry, UK/BDXC)

UK Propagation Report

RSGB

GB2RS News Team | May 30, 2025

Last week’s high-speed solar wind, from a massive coronal hole on the Sun, took its toll on the HF bands. However, this week has been little better. Another coronal hole running diagonally across the Sun has been emitting particles that have pushed the Kp index up to a maximum of 6.67 which puts us into visible aurora territory.

Nevertheless, some DX has been worked including CP4BT in Bolivia, ZP5KP in Paraguay and V44KAI St Kitts and Nevis. These were reported by Karl, G0SKW on the CDXC Slack alerting system.

BA100IARU, a special event station celebrating the 100th anniversary of the International Amateur Radio Union, has been active from Beijing, China and has been worked on 20m CW. The station’s QRZ.com page provides real-time updates on which band the operators are working on.

Most of the DX has been worked on 21, 18 and 14MHz with the 10m band mostly closed due to the summer doldrums. There have not been too many Sporadic-E openings on the 10m band. Instead, most of the Sporadic-E reports have been on the 6m band.

The solar flux index has increased, standing at 144 on Thursday 29 May, which is always a good sign. In fact, the solar disk is looking quite healthy at the moment with spots in both hemispheres.

As of last Thursday, the 29 May, there had been 43 C-class flares over the previous five days, as well as six more potent M-class events and one X-class flare. So, the Sun is still very active.

Next week, NOAA predicts that the solar flux index will reduce again, perhaps going as low as 110 by Wednesday 4 June. It does look like we are in for a rough ride with unsettled geomagnetic conditions forecast for the coming week. Looking further ahead, the 13 and 14 June seem to be the worst days, when a Kp index of five is forecast.

As usual, a high Kp index can result in lowered maximum useable frequencies and aurora-like conditions, with a slow recovery.

VHF and up:

The weather continues to be unsettled into the coming week, especially for northern areas, but with some drier and warmer spells in the south.

There does not appear to be strong signs for any Tropo success, but there should be a chance of occasional rain scatter on the GHz bands. 

Some models suggest we are on the edge of high pressure over the North Sea. Others drive a deep low right across the country. This will resolve itself next week, but for now it’s not at all clear which forecast will win through.

The prospects for meteor scatter are mostly random meteors but towards the end of this week the daytime Arietids will peak to enhance chances further.

The solar auroral alerts keep coming, so it’s reasonable to expect the chance of some radio response such as watery-sounding signals on HF, even if we don’t go to the full effects on VHF. It’s certainly worth watching for those increasing Kp values.

The Sporadic-E prospects often burst into life about now. So, after a few reasonable 6m band openings, like the one into southeast Europe on Wednesday 28 May, make sure you are ready for the first week in June – one of the prime weeks for Sporadic-E opportunities.

This is partly due to meteor input and the fact that the tidal winds in the E region are taking on their summer pattern. The long polar days mean that the low-pressure weather patterns are also beginning to affect the northern polar routes to China and Japan across northern Russia with their possible weather triggers, like jet streams.

EME path losses are increasing again. Moon windows shorten, and peak elevation is falling as the Moon declination goes negative again on Wednesday the 4 June. 144MHz sky noise is low and remains low as the week progresses.

https://rsgb.org/main/blog/news/gb2rs/propagation-news/2025/05/30/propagation-news-1-june-2025/

(Mike Terry/BDXC)