Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Weekly Propagation Forecast Update


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2007 Oct 30 1823 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 - 28 October 2007

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the period.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during 22 - 24 October. Activity increased to quiet to major storm levels on 25 October with a sudden impulse (15 nT) detected by the Boulder USGS magnetometer at 25/1138 UTC. Activity decreased to quiet to active levels during 26 - 27 October. Activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels during the rest of the period. ACE solar wind data indicated the 25 - 27 October activity was the result of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (HSS). The HSS was preceded by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), which reached the ACE spacecraft at approximately 25/1030 UTC. IMF changes associated with the CIR included increased Bt (peak 20.5 nT at 25/1406 UTC) and
increased Bz variability (minimum -16.8 nT at 25/1358 UTC). A proton density increase was also associated with the CIR (peak 17.6 p/cc at 25/1240 UTC). Solar wind velocities increased during 25 October and reached a peak of 733.8 km/sec at 25/2340 UTC. The HSS began to gradually subside on 26 October.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
31 October - 26 November 2007

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 31 October - 08 November and 16 - 26 November.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during 22 - 24 October. Activity increased to quiet to major storm levels on 25 October with a sudden impulse (15 nT) detected by the Boulder USGS magnetometer at 25/1138 UTC. Activity decreased to quiet to active levels during 26 - 27 October. Activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels during the rest of the period. ACE solar wind data indicated the 25 - 27 October activity was the result of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (HSS). The HSS was preceded by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), which reached the ACE spacecraft at approximately 25/1030 UTC. IMF changes associated with the CIR included increased Bt (peak 20.5 nT at 25/1406 UTC) and
increased Bz variability (minimum -16.8 nT at 25/1358 UTC). A proton density increase was also associated with the CIR (peak 17.6 p/cc at 25/1240 UTC). Solar wind velocities increased during 25 October and reached a peak of 733.8 km/sec at 25/2340 UTC. The HSS began to gradually subside on 26 October.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2007 Oct 30 1823 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2007 Oct 30
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2007 Oct 31 67 8 3
2007 Nov 01 67 5 2
2007 Nov 02 67 5 2
2007 Nov 03 67 5 2
2007 Nov 04 67 5 2
2007 Nov 05 68 5 2
2007 Nov 06 68 5 2
2007 Nov 07 68 5 2
2007 Nov 08 68 5 2
2007 Nov 09 68 5 2
2007 Nov 10 67 5 2
2007 Nov 11 67 5 2
2007 Nov 12 67 5 2
2007 Nov 13 67 5 2
2007 Nov 14 67 10 3
2007 Nov 15 67 12 3
2007 Nov 16 67 15 4
2007 Nov 17 67 8 3
2007 Nov 18 67 5 2
2007 Nov 19 67 5 2
2007 Nov 20 67 10 3
2007 Nov 21 67 15 4
2007 Nov 22 67 20 5
2007 Nov 23 67 10 3
2007 Nov 24 67 8 3
2007 Nov 25 67 10 3
2007 Nov 26 67 15 4
(NOAA)