Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2010 May 04 1951 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 April - 02 May 2010
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the week with five new regions being numbered. Region 1063 (N16, L=264, class/area Bxo/010 on 28 April) decayed to spotless plage soon after being numbered on 29 April. Region 1064 (N16, L=223, class/area Cro/010 on 01 May) showed some growth towards the end of the period but remained quiet. Region 1065 (S32, L=241, class/area Axx/000 on 02 May), Region 1066 (S27, L=209, class/area Axx/000 on 02 May), and Region 1067 (N23, L=170, class/area Bxo/020 on 02 May) were all numbered on 02 May. Prior to rotating onto the disk, Region 1067 produced two C-class events from behind the east limb, the biggest being a C5.7 event on 01/0139 UTC. A CME was observed lifting off the west limb on 02/2108 UTC, but does not appear to be Earthward directed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels. Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels during the period. The geomagnetic field was initially at quiet levels (26-28 April), but became quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period at mid-latitudes on 29 April due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). During the CIR, the ACE spacecraft observed Bz fluctuations of +/- 7 nT and an increase of Bt of 9 nT. Following the CIR, the solar wind speed increased from around 310 to 400 km/s indicating the presence of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels prevailed until 02 May, when activity increased to active to minor storm levels at middle latitudes, with major storm periods observed at high latitudes. At about 0900 UTC, observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated increases in temperature, density, and wind velocity, while the Bz component showed strong negative value peaks (at -20 nT). Solar wind speeds increased from 375 km/s to 700 km/s by 1645 UTC.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 - 31 May 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class events.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high flux levels on 05-06 May and at moderate levels on 07 May. Normal background levels are expected to prevail for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods from 05-06 May as the effects of a coronal hole high-speed stream subside. Quiet conditions are expected from 07-19 May. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 20-21 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected to return from 22-28 May. Unsettled to active with isolated minor storming levels are expected for 29-31 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 04 1951 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 May 04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 May 05 86 10 3
2010 May 06 86 8 3
2010 May 07 84 5 2
2010 May 08 84 5 2
2010 May 09 84 5 2
2010 May 10 82 5 2
2010 May 11 82 5 2
2010 May 12 80 5 2
2010 May 13 80 5 2
2010 May 14 78 5 2
2010 May 15 76 5 2
2010 May 16 75 5 2
2010 May 17 75 5 2
2010 May 18 75 5 2
2010 May 19 75 5 2
2010 May 20 75 8 3
2010 May 21 75 8 3
2010 May 22 75 5 2
2010 May 23 76 5 2
2010 May 24 76 5 2
2010 May 25 76 5 2
2010 May 26 78 5 2
2010 May 27 78 5 2
2010 May 28 78 5 2
2010 May 29 80 25 5
2010 May 30 80 20 4
2010 May 31 80 15 3
(NOAA)
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 April - 02 May 2010
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the week with five new regions being numbered. Region 1063 (N16, L=264, class/area Bxo/010 on 28 April) decayed to spotless plage soon after being numbered on 29 April. Region 1064 (N16, L=223, class/area Cro/010 on 01 May) showed some growth towards the end of the period but remained quiet. Region 1065 (S32, L=241, class/area Axx/000 on 02 May), Region 1066 (S27, L=209, class/area Axx/000 on 02 May), and Region 1067 (N23, L=170, class/area Bxo/020 on 02 May) were all numbered on 02 May. Prior to rotating onto the disk, Region 1067 produced two C-class events from behind the east limb, the biggest being a C5.7 event on 01/0139 UTC. A CME was observed lifting off the west limb on 02/2108 UTC, but does not appear to be Earthward directed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels. Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels during the period. The geomagnetic field was initially at quiet levels (26-28 April), but became quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period at mid-latitudes on 29 April due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). During the CIR, the ACE spacecraft observed Bz fluctuations of +/- 7 nT and an increase of Bt of 9 nT. Following the CIR, the solar wind speed increased from around 310 to 400 km/s indicating the presence of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels prevailed until 02 May, when activity increased to active to minor storm levels at middle latitudes, with major storm periods observed at high latitudes. At about 0900 UTC, observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated increases in temperature, density, and wind velocity, while the Bz component showed strong negative value peaks (at -20 nT). Solar wind speeds increased from 375 km/s to 700 km/s by 1645 UTC.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 - 31 May 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class events.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high flux levels on 05-06 May and at moderate levels on 07 May. Normal background levels are expected to prevail for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods from 05-06 May as the effects of a coronal hole high-speed stream subside. Quiet conditions are expected from 07-19 May. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 20-21 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected to return from 22-28 May. Unsettled to active with isolated minor storming levels are expected for 29-31 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 04 1951 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 May 04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 May 05 86 10 3
2010 May 06 86 8 3
2010 May 07 84 5 2
2010 May 08 84 5 2
2010 May 09 84 5 2
2010 May 10 82 5 2
2010 May 11 82 5 2
2010 May 12 80 5 2
2010 May 13 80 5 2
2010 May 14 78 5 2
2010 May 15 76 5 2
2010 May 16 75 5 2
2010 May 17 75 5 2
2010 May 18 75 5 2
2010 May 19 75 5 2
2010 May 20 75 8 3
2010 May 21 75 8 3
2010 May 22 75 5 2
2010 May 23 76 5 2
2010 May 24 76 5 2
2010 May 25 76 5 2
2010 May 26 78 5 2
2010 May 27 78 5 2
2010 May 28 78 5 2
2010 May 29 80 25 5
2010 May 30 80 20 4
2010 May 31 80 15 3
(NOAA)
Tomas Hood Propagation Website http://propagation.hfradio.org/
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