:Issued: 2016 Jul 11 0329 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 July 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels from 04-06 Jul followed by low levels for the remainder of the period. Region 2561 (S16, L=344, class/area Cro/beta on 07 Jul) produced a C5/Sn flare at 07/0756
UTC. Region 2564 (N09, L=209, class/area Dai/120 on 10 Jul) produced all further C-class activity, the largest a C8/2f at 10/0059 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (1435 km/s). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels from 04-08 Jul and reached high levels on 09-10 Jul following several days of enhanced solar wind speeds with a sequence of coronal holes.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet from 04-06 Jul with a few isolated unsettled periods under a nominal solar wind regime, unsettled to minor storm conditions were observed on 07-08 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects followed by unsettled to active conditions on 09 Jul as effects began to subside. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 10 Jul as CH HSS effects waned.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 July - 06 August 2016
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares through 24 Jul due to flare potential from Region 2564. Activity is expected to be very low for the remainder of the forecast period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 16-19 Jul, 22-27 Jul and 05-06 Aug following recurrent CH HSS events. Normal to moderate levels are expected otherwise. Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach minor storm levels on 11 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 12 Jul as effects continue followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 13 Jul as effects subside. A second CH HSS is expected to bring quiet to unsettled conditions on 14-15 Jul with active periods likely on the 14th.
Mostly quiet levels are expected on 16-18 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated from 19-24 Jul due to effects from a series of recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 25 Jul to 02 Aug with isolated unsettled periods possible from 28-30 Jul as a few small CH HSS events move past Earth. Minor storms are likely on 03-04 Aug due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS activity, decreasing to active conditions on 05 Aug and unsettled conditions on 06 Aug as effects subside.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 11 0329 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-07-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Jul 11 92 20 5
2016 Jul 12 90 12 3
2016 Jul 13 90 8 3
2016 Jul 14 90 15 3
2016 Jul 15 90 10 3
2016 Jul 16 90 5 2
2016 Jul 17 90 5 2
2016 Jul 18 90 5 2
2016 Jul 19 85 14 3
2016 Jul 20 78 12 3
2016 Jul 21 76 12 3
2016 Jul 22 77 7 2
2016 Jul 23 77 11 3
2016 Jul 24 75 10 3
2016 Jul 25 73 6 2
2016 Jul 26 74 4 2
2016 Jul 27 73 6 2
2016 Jul 28 72 7 2
2016 Jul 29 71 9 3
2016 Jul 30 72 8 3
2016 Jul 31 74 7 2
2016 Aug 01 72 4 2
2016 Aug 02 77 5 2
2016 Aug 03 83 23 5
2016 Aug 04 87 23 5
2016 Aug 05 92 14 3
2016 Aug 06 94 10 3
(NOAA)
