Monday, June 08, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Jun 08 0136 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPCc web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 June 2020

Solar activity was at very low levels with numerous B-class flares observed from new Region 2765 (S24, L=116, class/area Cao/130 on 05 Jun). This reverse polarity region was mostly stable since it rotated onto the disk on 03 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels through the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels, with some isolated unsettled periods late on 01 Jun through early 02 Jun. A nominal solar wind environment was prevalent with wind speeds that were ranging from 300-400 km/s, total field (Bt) 5 nT or less and the Bz component mostly neutral.

Solar wind parameters became enhanced after midday on 07 Jun. Wind speeds increased to near 475 km/s, Bt reached a maximum of 13 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward extent of -8 nT. A suspected weak, positive polarity CH HSS resulted in this enhanced wind environment. The geomagnetic field reacted with unsettled to active conditions the last half of 07 Jun.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 June - 04 July 2020

Solar activity is expected to be at mostly very low levels. A slight chance of low level activity exists through 15 Jun while Region 2765 remains on the visible disk. Very low levels will then persist  through 28 Jun. Old Region 2765 (S24, L=116) is expected to return after 28 Jun with a possible increase in low level flare activity to a slight chance.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to isolated active levels on 08 Jun due to the influence from a weak, positive polarity CH HSS. From 09 Jun to 04 Jul, mostly on quiet levels that are anticipated.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jun 08 0137 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-06-08
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Jun 08      72          12          4
2020 Jun 09      72           5          2
2020 Jun 10      72           5          2
2020 Jun 11      72           5          2
2020 Jun 12      72           5          2
2020 Jun 13      72           5          2
2020 Jun 14      72           5          2
2020 Jun 15      70           5          2
2020 Jun 16      70           5          2
2020 Jun 17      68           5          2
2020 Jun 18      68           5          2
2020 Jun 19      68           5          2
2020 Jun 20      68           5          2
2020 Jun 21      68           5          2
2020 Jun 22      68           5          2
2020 Jun 23      68           5          2
2020 Jun 24      68           5          2
2020 Jun 25      70           5          2
2020 Jun 26      70           5          2
2020 Jun 27      72           5          2
2020 Jun 28      72           5          2
2020 Jun 29      72           5          2
2020 Jun 30      72           5          2
2020 Jul 01      72           5          2
2020 Jul 02      72           5          2
2020 Jul 03      72           5          2
2020 Jul 04      72           8          3
(NOAA)