Monday, September 02, 2024

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Sep 02 0154 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 August - 01 September 2024


Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Low levels were observed on 28-29 Aug; moderate levels were observed on 26-27 Aug and 30-31 Aug; high levels were observed on 01 Sep. The strongest event of the reporting period was a long-duration M5.5 (R2-Moderate) flare at 01/1322 UTC from a yet to be numbered region rotating around the SE limb. A large CME was associated with the flare but given its proximity to the limb, the primary body of the ejecta is not expected to be Earth-directed. Two other regions produced R1 (Minor) events, Region 3796 (S03, L=353, class/area=Dki/380 on 23 Aug and Region 3806 (S11, L=212, class/area=Ekc/480 on 31 Aug). 

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit rose above background levels, but still well below event threshold, following the M5.5 flare from the SE limb on 01 Sep. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 26 Aug. Unsettled to active levels on 27 Aug marked the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 23 Aug. Total magnetic field strength initially increased to the lower teens. G2 conditions on 28 Aug were observed following a further increase in total field to 18 nT, with the Bz component reaching as far south as -15 nT. 

Total field maintained in the upper teens over Aug 29, however, slow solar wind speeds and a predominantly northward Bz resulted in quiet geomagnetic conditions. Further transient activity was observed over 30 Aug - 01 Sep, with modest wind speeds mostly between ~350-440 km/s. However, the Bz component of the magnetic field was sustained southward from 30 Aug - 01 Sep, which resulted in G1 (Minor) activity on 30-31 Aug and active conditions 01 Sep. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 September - 28 September 2024

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class events (R3-Strong), throughout the outlook period due to complex regions on the visible disk as well as the anticipated return of complex regions from the Sun's farside. 

There is a chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit on 02-03 Sep due to an M5.5 flare from the SE limb on 01 Sep. An increase in proton flux was observed following the event and there is potential for a gradual climb to the S1 (minor) threshold over the next couple of days. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are forecast on 27-28 Sep; active conditions are likely on 28 Sep, and unsettled levels are likely on 02 Sep, 08 Sep, and 17-18 Sep. All increases in geomagnetic activity are from anticipated recurrent features in the solar wind. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 02 0154 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2024-09-02
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2024 Sep 02     230           8          3
2024 Sep 03     240           5          2
2024 Sep 04     245           5          2
2024 Sep 05     250           5          2
2024 Sep 06     240           5          2
2024 Sep 07     240           5          2
2024 Sep 08     245          10          3
2024 Sep 09     245           5          2
2024 Sep 10     240           5          2
2024 Sep 11     240           5          2
2024 Sep 12     240           5          2
2024 Sep 13     240           5          2
2024 Sep 14     250           5          2
2024 Sep 15     255           5          2
2024 Sep 16     245           5          2
2024 Sep 17     240           8          3
2024 Sep 18     235           8          3
2024 Sep 19     240           5          2
2024 Sep 20     245           5          2
2024 Sep 21     240           5          2
2024 Sep 22     240           5          2
2024 Sep 23     245           5          2
2024 Sep 24     245           5          2
2024 Sep 25     240           5          2
2024 Sep 26     235          25          5
2024 Sep 27     230          25          5
2024 Sep 28     225          15          4
(NOAA)