Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Sep 23 0120 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 September 2024
Solar activity was low with C-class flare activity observed over 16-21 Sep. Solar activity reached moderate levels on 22 Sep due to an M3.7/2n flare at 22/2139 UTC from Region 3835 (); the largest event of the week. Regions 3828 () and 3831 () produced most of the
C-class flare activity observed throughout the week. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels at 17/0735 UTC, reached a peak flux of 33.6 pfu at 17/1050 UTC, and decreased below the S1 level at 17/1615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated over 18-19 Sep, but remained below the
S1 level. Background levels were observed over 20-22 Sep.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 16-17, and 19-22 Sep, and normal to moderate levels were observed on 18 Sep.
Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 16 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influences early in the day, followed by the initial arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 13-14 Sep late in the day. Periods of G1-G4 (Minor-Severe) storming were observed on
17 Sep due to sustained CME enhancements. Active conditions were observed again on 18 Sep, with periods of G1 (Minor) storming observed on 19 Sep, as CME influences waned and subsided. Quiet and unsettled conditions were observed on 20 Sep followed by quiet
conditions over 21-22 Sep.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 September - 19 October 2024
Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels throughout the outlook period, with a varying chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23-26 Sep and 12-15 Oct, with normal to moderate levels expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach unsettled levels on 25-26 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of active conditions are likely on 05-06 Oct due to another positive polarity CH HSS. Periods of active conditions are likely again on 10
Oct, followed by likely periods of G1 (Minor) storming on 11-12 Oct, due to yet another positive polarity CH HSS.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 23 0120 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-09-23
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Sep 23 160 5 2
2024 Sep 24 160 5 2
2024 Sep 25 160 8 3
2024 Sep 26 160 8 3
2024 Sep 27 165 5 2
2024 Sep 28 165 5 2
2024 Sep 29 165 5 2
2024 Sep 30 170 5 2
2024 Oct 01 175 5 2
2024 Oct 02 180 5 2
2024 Oct 03 180 5 2
2024 Oct 04 190 5 2
2024 Oct 05 190 10 4
2024 Oct 06 190 10 4
2024 Oct 07 185 5 2
2024 Oct 08 185 5 2
2024 Oct 09 185 5 2
2024 Oct 10 180 10 4
2024 Oct 11 175 20 5
2024 Oct 12 175 19 5
2024 Oct 13 175 5 2
2024 Oct 14 175 5 2
2024 Oct 15 175 5 2
2024 Oct 16 175 5 2
2024 Oct 17 170 5 2
2024 Oct 18 170 5 2
2024 Oct 19 165 5 2
(NOAA)
