Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Dec 02 0252 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 November - 01 December 2024
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels this period. R1 (Minor) and R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts were observed on 25 Nov, with an isolated R1 (Minor) event observed on 27 Nov. The largest event of the period was the M9.4 (R2) flare at 25/0742 UTC, produced
by Region 3910 (N16, L=111, class/area Dko/250 on 28 Nov) when it was still just beyond the NE limb. This event had an associated 10cm radio burst (210 sfu) at 25/0734 UTC. Region 3910 also produced an M1.5 flare at 25/1707 UTC. Region 3906 (S16, L=158, class/area
Dai/240 on 23 Nov) was responsible for three of the R1 events: an M1.1 at 25/0159 UTC, an M1.8 at 25/0453 UTC, and an M1.0 at 25/1636 UTC. Region 3901 (S08, L=218, class/area Dao/200) produced two R1 events: an M1.9/Sf flare at 25/2054 UTC and an M1.0 flare at 27/1246
UTC respectively. The M1.9/Sf had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 591 km/s. Region 3905 (S09, L=164, class/area Eso/120 on 23 Nov) produced an isolated M2.0 flare on 25 Nov at 1212 UTC. During the period, a total of 53 C-class and 7
M-flares were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to an isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm period. Unsettled levels were observed on 25, 26, 29 Nov and 01 Dec. On 25-26 Nov, the field was influenced by waning negative coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The
unsettled periods on 29 Nov and the isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming on 30 Nov, were likely associated with arrival of the CME that left the Sun on 25 Nov. The isolated unsettled period on 01 Dec was likely associated with the possible interaction
with the heliospheric current sheet. The solar wind environment saw a few minor enhancements during the highlight period. Total field mainly averaged between 5-7 nT, with isolated peaks near 14-16 nT, likely the result of the arrival of the aforementioned CME. The Bz
component varied between +/-6 nT with a couple of southward deviations to -10 nT. The solar wind field was fairly consistent between 330-485 km/s. The phi angle was in a negative sector through early 29 Nov before oscillating between positive and negative
orientations late on 29 Nov and again on 30 Nov before remaining in a positive sector through the rest of the highlight period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 December - 28 December 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels (R1- Minor), with a chance for moderate levels (R2 - Moderate) from 02 Dec - 15 Dec, then be at low to moderate levels (R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate), with a chance for high levels (R3 - Strong) from 16 Dec - 28 Dec as several
magnetically complex regions are due to return.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However, there is a chance for proton activity following significant solar flare activity during the outlook period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be at unsettled periods on 02 Dec (residual CME activity). Unsettled to active periods are likely on 10-14 Dec due to influence from recurrent positive coronal hole effects, and 16-20 Dec due to a recurrent negative coronal
hole. Mostly quiet periods are likely on 03-09 Dec, 15 Dec, and 21-28 Dec.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Dec 02 0252 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-12-02
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Dec 02 185 8 3
2024 Dec 03 185 5 2
2024 Dec 04 170 5 2
2024 Dec 05 170 5 2
2024 Dec 06 170 5 2
2024 Dec 07 175 5 2
2024 Dec 08 175 5 2
2024 Dec 09 185 5 2
2024 Dec 10 195 10 4
2024 Dec 11 200 10 4
2024 Dec 12 200 15 4
2024 Dec 13 205 10 4
2024 Dec 14 205 8 3
2024 Dec 15 205 5 2
2024 Dec 16 205 8 3
2024 Dec 17 205 8 3
2024 Dec 18 210 8 3
2024 Dec 19 205 12 4
2024 Dec 20 200 8 3
2024 Dec 21 200 5 2
2024 Dec 22 205 5 2
2024 Dec 23 205 5 2
2024 Dec 24 210 5 2
2024 Dec 25 205 5 2
2024 Dec 26 210 5 2
2024 Dec 27 205 5 2
2024 Dec 28 190 5 2
(NOAA)
