:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Dec 30 0237 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 December 2024
Solar activity reached R1 (Minor) levels on 23-29 Dec, R2 (Moderate) levels on 23, 26 and 29 Dec and R3 (Strong) levels on 29 Dec. During this highlight period, a total of 33 C-class, 41 M-class and 1 X-class flares were observed. Region 3932 (S17, L=155, class/area Fkc/480 on 23 Dec) contributed to 5 C-class and 10 M-class flares early in the highlight period on 23-24 Dec. The largest flare observed from Region 3932 was an M8.9 (R2-Moderate) event at 23/1112 UTC with a 732 km/s Type II and a 320 sfu Tenflare. Weak M-class activity was observed on 25 Dec from Region 3938 (N21, L=103, class/area Eac/210 on 26 Dec). At 26/0315 UTC, Region 3938 observed an M7.3/2b (R2-Moderate) flare. Weak M-class activity was observed on 27-28 Dec from Regions 3928 (S14, L=177, class/area Dkc/280 on 25 Dec), 3932, 3933 (S08, L=175, class/area Ekc/350 on 24 Dec) and 3938.
Activity picked up tremendously on 29 Dec with a total of 21 M-class flares and 1 X-class flare. Region 3936 (N14, L=144, class/area Ekc/400 on 26 Dec) produced 12 M-class flares on the 29th, including an M7.1 at 29/1509 and the largest event of the highlight period, an X1.1 flare at 29/0718 UTC. Region 3939 (S17, L=083, class/area Dso/120 on 29 Dec) produced an M2.0/Sf flare at 29/0430 UTC that resulted in an asymmetric, partial-halo CME with an Earth-directed component. Later on the 29th, this region produced an M3.3/1b flare at 29/1708 that resulted in another partial-halo CME. Analysis of a potential Earth-directed component was in progress at the time of this writing.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 23 Dec with a peak flux of 1,540 pfu observed at 23/1725 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 24-29 Dec.
Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled to active levels on 23-24 Dec due to negative polarity CH HSS influence and weak CME effects. Quiet levels predominated on 25-29 Dec. Solar wind began the period on 23 Dec enhanced with wind speeds in the 600-675 km/s
range, Bt at 10 nT and Bz at about -4 nT. Enhanced field conditions persisted on 24 Dec. From 25-29 Dec, field conditions approached nominal levels where wind speeds decayed to 300-400 km/s and Bt and Bz levels were at nominal levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 December - 25 January 2025
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong) levels due to potential flare activity from numerous active regions.
There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event reaching the S1 (Minor) level during the outlook period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 01-04 Jan due to CME influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G3 (Strong) levels on 31 Dec and G1 (Minor) levels on 01 Jan due to CME influence. Unsettled to isolated active level are likely on 05-06 Jan, 10-12 Jan and 16-20 Jan due to CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels are
likely on 30 Dec, 02-04 Jan, 07-09 Jan, 13-15 Jan and 21-25 Jan.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Dec 30 0237 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-12-30
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Dec 30 255 8 3
2024 Dec 31 240 50 7
2025 Jan 01 210 20 5
2025 Jan 02 200 8 3
2025 Jan 03 195 5 2
2025 Jan 04 190 5 2
2025 Jan 05 190 8 3
2025 Jan 06 170 8 3
2025 Jan 07 160 5 2
2025 Jan 08 160 5 2
2025 Jan 09 165 5 2
2025 Jan 10 170 12 4
2025 Jan 11 165 10 3
2025 Jan 12 170 8 3
2025 Jan 13 170 5 2
2025 Jan 14 175 5 2
2025 Jan 15 175 5 2
2025 Jan 16 180 12 4
2025 Jan 17 190 10 3
2025 Jan 18 200 10 3
2025 Jan 19 210 10 3
2025 Jan 20 220 10 3
2025 Jan 21 230 5 2
2025 Jan 22 230 5 2
2025 Jan 23 230 5 2
2025 Jan 24 230 5 2
2025 Jan 25 230 5 2
(NOAA)
