Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Feb 03 0137 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 January - 02 February 2025
Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels (R2-Moderate). Minor (R1-Minor) levels were observed on 27-29 Jan, 31 Jan and 01-02 Feb. Moderate (R2-Moderate) levels were observed on 31 Jan and 02 Feb. Region 3976 (N13, L=001, class/area Ekc/260 on 02 Feb) produced 31 C-class flares and 2 M-class flares, the largest an M2.6 at 27/0812 UTC. Region 3977 (N19, L=002, class/area Cao/120 on 02 Feb produced 10 C-class flares and 6 M-class flares, the largest an M5.1 at 02/1404 UTC.
Region 3978 (N11, L=350, class/area Dai/200 on 02 Feb) produced 5 C-class flares and 1 M-class flare, the largest an M6.7/1n at 31/1406 UTC. Associated with this event was a 270 pfu 10cm burst and a 673 km/s Type II sweep. Region 3981 (N05, L=338, class/area
Dsi/190 on 02 Feb) produced 10 C-class flares and 4 M-class flares, the largest an M4.1 at 02/2324 UTC. All other active regions were either quiet or contributed C-class events. Potential Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 29 and 31 Jan.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 02 Feb with a maximum flux of 1,653 pfu at 02/1550 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 27-31 Jan and 01 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 27-28 Jan due to weak CME effects. Mostly quiet levels were observed on 29-31 Jan. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 01-02 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced on 27-29 Jan due to weak CME effects. Greater enhancements were observed on 01-02 Feb with total field at highs of 18 nT and the Bz component reaching -17 nT at times. Wind speeds increased from about 410 km/s to about 750 km/s late on 01 Feb.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 February - 01 March 2025
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels throughout a majority of the outlook period, all due to numerous, significant solar regions expected on the solar disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 03-04 Feb, 18-19 Feb, 27-28 Feb and 01 Mar, all due to CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 05-17 Feb and 20-26 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 03-05 Feb due to a combination of positive polarity CH HSS and weak CME effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 10-19 Feb due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS effects.
Unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels are expected on 27-28 Feb and 01 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 03 0137 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2025-02-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2025 Feb 03 215 14 3
2025 Feb 04 215 18 4
2025 Feb 05 215 8 3
2025 Feb 06 215 10 3
2025 Feb 07 210 5 2
2025 Feb 08 210 5 2
2025 Feb 09 200 5 2
2025 Feb 10 200 10 3
2025 Feb 11 195 15 3
2025 Feb 12 195 15 4
2025 Feb 13 195 20 5
2025 Feb 14 190 10 3
2025 Feb 15 180 15 4
2025 Feb 16 180 20 4
2025 Feb 17 185 10 3
2025 Feb 18 185 10 3
2025 Feb 19 180 10 3
2025 Feb 20 180 5 2
2025 Feb 21 175 5 2
2025 Feb 22 185 5 2
2025 Feb 23 190 5 2
2025 Feb 24 190 5 2
2025 Feb 25 185 5 2
2025 Feb 26 185 5 2
2025 Feb 27 195 10 3
2025 Feb 28 205 25 5
2025 Mar 01 210 25 5
(NOAA)
