Monday, February 10, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Feb 10 0046 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web ontact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 February 2025

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3981 (N07, L=341, class/area=Ekc/430 on 05 Feb) was the most active region on the disk. AR 3981 produced an M8.8 flare at 03/0358 UTC, the largest event of the period, in addition to several R1 and R2 events
throughout the course of the week. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the week. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 08 Feb, and G1 (Minor) levels on 09 Feb, due to a SSBC followed by the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 February - 08 March 2025

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels throughout the period. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or greater events. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 10, 13, and 28 Feb, and active levels are expected on 11-12 Feb, and 01 Mar due to CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are likely to prevail throughout the remainder
of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 10 0046 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-02-10
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Feb 10     165          27          5
2025 Feb 11     170          18          4
2025 Feb 12     175          15          4
2025 Feb 13     180          20          5
2025 Feb 14     180          12          3
2025 Feb 15     185          10          3
2025 Feb 16     185          10          3
2025 Feb 17     185          10          3
2025 Feb 18     180          10          3
2025 Feb 19     180          10          3
2025 Feb 20     185           5          2
2025 Feb 21     180           5          2
2025 Feb 22     190           5          2
2025 Feb 23     195           5          2
2025 Feb 24     205           5          2
2025 Feb 25     200           5          2
2025 Feb 26     200           5          2
2025 Feb 27     200          10          3
2025 Feb 28     205          25          5
2025 Mar 01     200          20          4
2025 Mar 02     205           5          2
2025 Mar 03     210           5          2
2025 Mar 04     210           5          2
2025 Mar 05     205           5          2
2025 Mar 06     205           5          2
2025 Mar 07     200          10          3
2025 Mar 08     200          10          3
(NOAA)