Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Feb 24 0214 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 February 2025
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Solar activity was at low levels on 18-20 and 22 Feb, moderate levels on 17 and 21 Feb, and reached high levels on 23 Feb. In total, seven M-class flares (R1-Minor) were observed, ranging from M1.0 to M4.9, and one X-class (R3-Strong) flare. Contributing regions were 3992 (S06, L=246, class/area Eai/090 on 17 Feb), 3998 (S14, L=114, class/area Ekc/290 on 23 Feb), 4000 (N17, L=105, class/area Dai/180 on 22 Feb), and 4001 (N24, L=176, class/area Dai/050 on 23 Feb). The sole X flare was an X2.0 from Region 4001 at 23/1927 UTC.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 17-18 Feb due to persistent negative polarity CH influence, and was at normal to moderate levels on 19-23 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 18-19 Feb, and saw an isolated active period on 20 Feb, due to persistent negative polarity CH influence. Conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels 21-23 Feb as CH effects dissipated.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 February - 22 March 2025
Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels throughout the period. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) activity is possible at different points throughout the period as active regions grow, evolve, return from the far-side of the Sun. There is a slight chance for R3 or greater events if any of the active regions develop additional complex magnetic structures.
There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater proton events, pending the development and activity of the active regions.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 24 Feb-09 Mar and 19-22 Mar. From 10-18 Mar, high levels are likely as recurrent negative polarity coronal holes are expected to move into geoeffective positions.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 24 Feb-06 Mar with periodic, weak CH influences. Unsettled to active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming conditions are likely from 07-18 Mar as recurrent negative polarity CHs are expected to be in a geoeffective position. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 19-22 Mar as the CHs move out of a favorable position.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 24 0214 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2025-02-24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2025 Feb 24 210 8 3
2025 Feb 25 210 8 3
2025 Feb 26 210 6 2
2025 Feb 27 200 10 3
2025 Feb 28 195 12 4
2025 Mar 01 195 10 3
2025 Mar 02 190 8 3
2025 Mar 03 190 5 2
2025 Mar 04 190 5 2
2025 Mar 05 190 5 2
2025 Mar 06 185 5 2
2025 Mar 07 180 10 3
2025 Mar 08 170 10 3
2025 Mar 09 160 25 5
2025 Mar 10 155 15 3
2025 Mar 11 160 15 3
2025 Mar 12 170 25 5
2025 Mar 13 180 30 5
2025 Mar 14 185 30 5
2025 Mar 15 185 20 4
2025 Mar 16 185 18 4
2025 Mar 17 180 15 3
2025 Mar 18 180 20 4
2025 Mar 19 185 8 3
2025 Mar 20 190 5 2
2025 Mar 21 195 5 2
2025 Mar 22 200 5 2
(NOAA)
