RSGB
February 20, 2026
We had a week of relatively low solar flux indices and mostly settled geomagnetic conditions.
While the solar flux index fell to be in the 117 to 129 range, the Kp index was mostly in the twos and threes. This was after the weekend’s geomagnetic disturbance due to a large coronal hole that expelled solar plasma in a stream that moved past Earth at nearly 700km per second.
As a result, HF conditions have been quite good with plenty of DX being worked.
The KP5/NP3VI Desecheo Island DXpedition near Puerto Rico has been a struggle for many, due to its popularity and use of solar-powered batteries and low power.
One quick hint: try FT8 on the 40m band around 7am to 7.30am. You get a greyline enhancement at sunrise but for much of Europe the band is closing, which means there is little competition.
Let us know how you get on.
Other DX this week includes 8R1WA in Guyana. This is an Italian team operating until Friday, 27 February. Chuck will be active as VP2MCV on Montserrat and will be active in the ARRL DX CW Contest and until the end of the month.
A German team will be operating as J51A in Guinea-Bissau until mid-March.
Another large solar coronal hole became Earth-facing on Friday, 20 February, so we may expect unsettled geomagnetic conditions from today,
22 February.
Next week, the Space Weather Prediction Centre forecast a low solar flux index of 105 for yesterday, 21 February, before rising again to potentially reach 165 by the end of this month.
Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are forecast for 24-25 February with an estimated Kp index of 5.
VHF and up propagation news from G3YLA and G4BAO:
Friday, 13 February and Saturday, 14 February, saw afternoon openings on 50MHz to TZ1CE in Mali to generate DX interest.
However, as expected, it was stations much further south that benefited from the best propagation, with just a few stations in the southern areas of the UK making QSOs on FT8.
The present spell of unsettled weather remains the main theme for the period up to the end of the coming week.
The pattern is controlled by a strong Atlantic jet stream so ‘changeable’ is the watchword with periods of heavy rain alternating with brighter showery interludes and, of course, quite strong winds at times.
In terms of propagation, rain scatter is a clear favourite, although in one cloudy period in mild air around Tuesday, 24 February, some possible tropo may show up for the southern areas of UK.
The meteor scatter options are again subject to random activity since we are still some way off the next important shower, the Lyrids, in late April.
The auroral prospects have, at best, been gently simmering at low values of the Kp index, mostly less than 5. Stay tuned though, because we may see an uptick around Tuesday, 24 February.
So watch for signs of fluttery signals on the LF bands and then check for auroral tones on 10m and up through the 6m to 2m bands.
These events are always a bit of a long shot but should be worth checking this time.
The sporadic-E season is still some way off, although a strong jet stream pattern is always a positive.
For EME, Moon declination is positive and rising, meaning longer Moon windows and higher peak elevation. Path loss continues to fall as we approach perigee on Tuesday, 24 February. 144MHz sky noise starts the coming week low, rising to moderate towards the end.
And that’s all from the propagation team this week.
https://rsgb.org/main/blog/news/gb2rs/propagation-news/2026/02/20/propagation-news-22-february-2026/
(Mike Terry, UK/BDXC)
