Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletin, February 23, 2026
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Feb 23 0204 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 February 2026
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. The largest event was an M2.5 flare (R1-Minor) at 16/0435 UTC from a location beyond the east limb. A Type II radio sweep (est. 310 km/s) was observed on 18 Feb and associated with a large eruption just beyond the southeast limb. Only low-levels C-class activity was observed over 17-23 Feb. The sun ended the summary period free of sunspots on the visible disk for the first time since 2022.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels over 16-20 Feb following sustained higher wind speeds from a positive polarity coronal hole. Normal to moderate levels were observed over 21-22 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity reached a peak of G2 (Moderate) levels on 16 Feb due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed over 17-19 Feb. Active levels over 20-21 Feb were likely associated with transient passage. By 22 Feb,a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS increased geomagnetic conditions up to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Wind speeds were observed between 600-700 km/s on 22 Feb as the high speed stream set in.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 February - 21 March 2026
Solar activity is expected to be at very low, with a good change for C-class flares and a slight change for M-class flare (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23 Feb - 03 Mar, 06-08 Mar, 11-12 Mar, 15-19 Mar, and 21 Mar due to anticipated influence of multiple recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) levels on 21 Mar.;G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 23 Feb, 10 Mar, 14 Mar, and 20 Mar; active levels are likely on 24 Feb, 05-06 Mar, 12-13 Mar, 15-16 Mar, and 19 Mar; unsettled levels are likely over 25 Feb, 07 Mar, 09 Mar, 11 Mar, and 17-18 Mar. All increases in geomagnetic activity are anticipated due to expected influence from multiple, recurrent coronal hole HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2026 Feb 23 0204 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2026-02-23
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2026 Feb 23 112 20 5
2026 Feb 24 115 12 4
2026 Feb 25 118 10 3
2026 Feb 26 120 5 2
2026 Feb 27 122 5 2
2026 Feb 28 122 5 2
2026 Mar 01 122 5 2
2026 Mar 02 125 5 2
2026 Mar 03 125 5 2
2026 Mar 04 125 5 2
2026 Mar 05 125 15 4
2026 Mar 06 130 15 4
2026 Mar 07 130 8 3
2026 Mar 08 130 5 2
2026 Mar 09 125 8 3
2026 Mar 10 122 18 5
2026 Mar 11 120 8 3
2026 Mar 12 118 12 4
2026 Mar 13 116 12 4
2026 Mar 14 116 20 5
2026 Mar 15 116 18 4
2026 Mar 16 115 12 4
2026 Mar 17 115 10 3
2026 Mar 18 115 10 3
2026 Mar 19 112 12 4
2026 Mar 20 110 18 5
2026 Mar 21 110 38 6
(NOAA)
