Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Feb 16 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 February 2026
Solar activity reached moderate levels on 09, 11, 12, and 13 Feb and was at low levels on 10, 14, and 15 Feb. Region 4366 (N14, L=203, class/area Fkc/950 on 09 Feb) continued to be the most prolific spot group, producing five out of the six M-class flares during the period.
The largest flare was an M2.8 flare that occurred at 09/0227 UTC, followed by an M1.2 at 10/0009 UTC, an M1.1 at 11/0044 UTC, an M1.4 at 11/1312 UTC, and finally an M1.4 at 12/0240 UTC. Region 4373 (N09, L=110, class/area Hax/140 on 10 Feb) was the only other region to contribute to the M-flare activity, adding an M1.0/Sf flare at 13/0858 UTC. There were 35 C-class flares, with the largest being a C9.2/Sf at 09/2302 UTC from Region 4374.
CME activity included a large filament (located near N15W25) that lifted off and disappeared from GONG H-alpha imagery at around 10/1910Z. Initial coronagraph imagery from LASCO C2 at 10/1948Z revealed the eruption likely coincided with a separate eruption from S22W80 (first visible in C2 at 10/1924Z). This event is thought to have passed near Earth late on 14 Feb, slightly enhancing the geomagnetic field. Additionally, a CME associated with the M1.0 on 13 Feb first became visible off the NW in LASCO C2 at 13/0924Z and first became visible in STEREO COR2 imagery at 13/0938Z. This event likely arrived at Earth on 15 Feb, possibly embedded in the CH HSS.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit on 09-15 Feb.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 09, 10, 12, and 13 Feb, reaching a peak flux value of 1,764 pfu at 09/1500 UTC. Flux levels were at moderate levels on 11, 14, and 15 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 09 and 12 Feb, reached active levels on 10, 11, 13, and 14 Feb, and reached minor storm levels on 15 Feb. The elevated levels starting on 09 Feb and lasting through 14 Feb were likely associated with negative polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) influences combined with intermittent transient effects. The increase in activity on 15 Feb is thought to be the result of a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS, possibly mixed with glancing effects from the CME that left the Sun
on 13 Feb.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 February - 14 March 2026
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 16-21 Feb. Activity is expected to increase to moderate levels with M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares expected and a chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) on 22 Feb through 07 Mar as Region 4366 returns to the visible disk. Activity should then decrease to low levels, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 08-09 Mar as Region 4366 transits the western limb. Low levels, with a chance for M-class flares, are expected to return on 10-14 Mar as old Region 4366 rotates to the far side once again.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels are likely to be below the S1 (Minor) level on 16-21 Feb and again on 08-14 Mar. There is a chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels from 22 Feb-07 Mar as old Region 4366 returns to the visible disk.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 16 Feb through 03 Mar, 06-08 Mar, and 11-12 Mar as CH HSS influence sporadically continues. Moderate levels are likely on 04-05, 09-10, and 13-14 Mar, outside of CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 16-21 Feb, 24-25 Feb, 05-07 Mar, and 10 Mar due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS effects. Active conditions are likely on 12 Mar following a solar sector boundary crossing, then again on 14 Mar with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Barring the potential for CME activity, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected from 19-23 Feb, 26 Feb - 04 Mar, and 08, 09, 11, and 13 Mar.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2026 Feb 16 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2026-02-16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2026 Feb 16 115 20 5
2026 Feb 17 115 12 4
2026 Feb 18 110 10 3
2026 Feb 19 110 8 3
2026 Feb 20 110 5 2
2026 Feb 21 105 5 2
2026 Feb 22 120 5 2
2026 Feb 23 130 8 3
2026 Feb 24 135 20 5
2026 Feb 25 130 20 5
2026 Feb 26 130 8 3
2026 Feb 27 140 5 2
2026 Feb 28 160 5 2
2026 Mar 01 165 5 2
2026 Mar 02 170 5 2
2026 Mar 03 170 5 2
2026 Mar 04 170 5 2
2026 Mar 05 165 15 4
2026 Mar 06 165 15 4
2026 Mar 07 165 8 3
2026 Mar 08 145 5 2
2026 Mar 09 140 8 3
2026 Mar 10 130 18 5
2026 Mar 11 130 8 3
2026 Mar 12 120 12 3
2026 Mar 13 120 5 2
2026 Mar 14 120 20 5
(NOAA)
