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RSGB
RadCom Assistant Editor | February 27, 2026
We have just had a period of zero sunspots – the first time since June 2022. However, don’t worry. This may be a sign of things to come, but this zero-spot period was short-lived.
There are now signs of sunspots appearing over the Sun’s eastern limb with old region 4366, last seen on 11 February, making its return. It is now renamed Active Region 4378.
This is helping to boost the solar flux index, which stood at 125 on Thursday, 26 February. This is a long way off the usual solar flux index lows we experience at sunspot minimum when it can be as low as 66-70.
As we are now entering March and, with the hours of daylight increasing, we are seeing a change in HF propagation. The Spring equinox is a time for good north-south propagation, especially on the higher HF bands, although we may see the 10m band tailing off a little as we head towards summer.
For the best overall DX HF propagation, head to 21MHz or higher where you may get maximum global coverage.
Propagation has been reasonable, but a high-speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole pushed the Kp index to 4 for long periods. This has not helped HF propagation, although its effects are not as bad as a Kp index of 6 or higher.
DXpeditions to be worked this week include Bouvet Island, 3Y0K; Guinea Bissau, J51A and the final days of Desecheo Island, KP5/NP3VI, which is due to end around 3 March.
Lubo, OM5ZW and Laco, OM4WM, will also be active from Thulusdhoo Island in the Maldives as 8Q7ZW until 12 March.
Next week, the Space Weather Prediction Center predicts that the solar flux index will remain in the 120 to 130 range.
The solar wind model predicts that a cloud of plasma may hit Earth today, 1 March, so watch out for an increased Kp index. Otherwise, the first half of the coming week may be quiet, geomagnetically. However, the Kp index is predicted to rise to 4 on 5-6 March.
VHF and up propagation news from G3YLA and G4BAO:
The early part of last week saw brief 50MHz FT8 spots of the J51A DXpedition to Guinea-Bissau in the southern part of the UK. As with TZ1CE last week, stations much further south benefited from the best propagation.
As of 26 February, Clublog showed no UK stations in its log yet. Earlier in the week the station was an easy catch using FT8 on all the lower bands.
The current spell of very unsettled weather will last into the early part of the coming week. Thereafter, it seems likely that high pressure will start to build over the country, possibly with another weak front after mid-week. This may soon be followed by another high before the end of the week.
In terms of radio propagation, although some further rain scatter is probable at first, as we head into the coming week, there is every chance of tropo becoming a mode of choice.
It’s important to remember that not all highs are equal and, although they all tend to produce a strong temperature inversion, they may not be good for tropo if the air near the surface is too dry.
Ideally, we need to see some misty low cloud or early morning fog trapped under the inversion for the better-quality lifts. This is because a change in moisture across the top of the inversion produces the biggest change to the refractive index.
Other modes to consider, though not too seriously, are aurora after the recent coronal hole stream. The indication you are looking for is a high value Kp index, say 5 or greater, up to the maximum of 9.
With meteor scatter, we are in a long gap in shower activity until the Lyrids in late April so relying on random meteor activity is the best we can expect.
The prospects for Sporadic-E are not necessarily zero but are unlikely to be too exciting in this part of the year. The main summer season is normally considered to run from late April to mid-September. In the interim, the occasional burst of activity is possible but probably limited to the 10 or 6m bands.
For EME, Moon declination has started to fall again, going negative on Wednesday, 4 March. This means shortening Moon windows and lower peak elevation. Path losses are rising again after perigee. 144MHz sky noise is low throughout the coming week.
And that’s all from the propagation team this week.
(Mike Terry/BDXC)
