Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 Dec 22 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
14 - 20 December 2009

Solar activity was very low during 14-15 December. Activity was low on 16-19 December as Region 1035 (N31, L=250, class/area Bxo/20 on 14 December) produced several C-flares, with numerous B-flares, and associated radio emissions. One event was a C5/sf at 16/0124 UTC
with an associated slow moving partial-halo coronal mass ejection. Another C1 at 16/2212 UTC had a very weak Type IV radio sweep associated with it. Two new regions were numbered on 19 December as Region 1036 (S29, L=210, class/area Bxo/10 on 19 December) and Region 1037 (N18, L=137, class/area Bxo/10 on 19 December). On 20 December activity returned to very low and a new region was numbered as Region 1038 (N16, L=204, class/area Axx/10 on 20 December).

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels during the period.

The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet throughout the summary period. The exception was quiet to unsettled levels observed on 14 December between 14/0300 - 1500 UTC. Observations from the ACE spacecraft showed signatures of a solar boundary crossing with an increase in the interplanetary total field and a period of sustained southward Bz.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 December 2009 - 18 January 2010

Solar activity is expected to be predominantly very low during the first half of the period. Activity is expected to be very to low during the second half of the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the forecast period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2009 Dec 22 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 Dec 22
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 Dec 23 76 5 2
2009 Dec 24 74 5 2
2009 Dec 25 74 5 2
2009 Dec 26 72 5 2
2009 Dec 27 72 5 2
2009 Dec 28 72 5 2
2009 Dec 29 72 5 2
2009 Dec 30 72 5 2
2009 Dec 31 72 5 2
2010 Jan 01 72 5 2
2010 Jan 02 72 5 2
2010 Jan 03 73 5 2
2010 Jan 04 74 5 2
2010 Jan 05 75 5 2
2010 Jan 06 76 5 2
2010 Jan 07 78 5 2
2010 Jan 08 80 5 2
2010 Jan 09 82 5 2
2010 Jan 10 82 5 2
2010 Jan 11 84 5 2
2010 Jan 12 84 5 2
2010 Jan 13 85 5 2
2010 Jan 14 85 5 2
2010 Jan 15 82 5 2
2010 Jan 16 82 5 2
2010 Jan 17 80 5 2
2010 Jan 18 80 5 2
(NOAA)