Monday, November 25, 2013

Weekly propagation forecast bulletins

















Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Nov 25 0413 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 November 2013

Solar activity reached high levels during the period. The week began at low levels with C-class flares coming from Regions 1893 (S13, L=102 class/area Eki/480 on 18 Nov), 1897 (S21, L=064 class/area Ekc/610 on 13 Nov) and 1900 (S19, L=105 class/area Dac/150 on 15 Nov). On 19 November, Region 1893 produced an X1/Sf at 19/1026 UTC. An associated CME was observed, along with a Type II (est. speed 1049 km/s) radio sweep and a 530 sfu Tenflare. Low levels returned on 20 November. Moderate levels were reached on 21 and 23 November. Region 1893 produced an M1 at 21/1111 UTC and newly numbered Region 1904 (N12, L=039 class/area Dai/130 on 24 Nov) produced a pair of M1 flares at 23/0232 UTC and 23/1257 UTC. Low levels rounded out the period on 24 November. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 23/2342 UTC. A subsequent CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 24/0125 UTC. The CME is not expected to be geo effective. 

A greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement was observed beginning at approximately 19/1245 UTC and reached a maximum flux value of 4 pfu at 19/1825 UTC before returning to background levels by 21 November. The enhancement was likely associated with the X1/Sf flare on 19 November. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with the exception of three unsettled periods observed between 23/0300 UTC and 23/1200 UTC. The increase in activity appeared to be due to a weak transient. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 November - 21 December 2013

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for isolated M-class activity until the return of old Region 1890 (S13, L=171) on 28 November. Chances for moderate activity increase from 28 November to 16 December as a chain of regions that produced moderate to high activity during the last rotation return to the visible disk. Predominately low level activity is expected for the remainder of the period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 25 - 27 November due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet conditions are expected from 28 November - 03 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated to return on 04 December due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are anticipated on 06 - 08 December due to a recurrent positive polarity HSS. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period with the exception of 13 - 14 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on those two days due to a second negative polarity HSS. 
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Nov 25 0413 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html 
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-11-25
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Nov 25     130           8          3
2013 Nov 26     130          10          3
2013 Nov 27     130           8          3
2013 Nov 28     135           5          2
2013 Nov 29     135           5          2
2013 Nov 30     135           5          2
2013 Dec 01     135           5          2
2013 Dec 02     140           5          2
2013 Dec 03     145           5          2
2013 Dec 04     145          10          3
2013 Dec 05     150           5          2
2013 Dec 06     150          15          4
2013 Dec 07     155          15          4
2013 Dec 08     165          12          3
2013 Dec 09     165           5          2
2013 Dec 10     165           5          2
2013 Dec 11     165           5          2
2013 Dec 12     165           5          2
2013 Dec 13     165          10          3
2013 Dec 14     165           8          3
2013 Dec 15     160           5          2
2013 Dec 16     155           5          2
2013 Dec 17     145           5          2
2013 Dec 18     140           5          2
2013 Dec 19     140           5          2
2013 Dec 20     135           5          2
2013 Dec 21     130           5          2
(NOAA)