Monday, August 05, 2019

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Aug 05 0339 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 July - 04 August 2019

Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. Other activity included a filament eruption observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 04/1640 UTC in the NW quadrant. Analysis is on-going for any potential coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) beginning midday on 30 Jul. Total field increased to 11 nT by 30/2024 UTC while solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 596 km/s at 01/0503 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled periods on 30 Jul-01 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 August - 31 August 2019

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the forecast period (05-31 Aug).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 05 Aug and 18 Aug. High levels are expected on 06-17 Aug due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach unsettled to active levels on 05-08, 10-11, 17-18, 26-28, and 31 Aug with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 05-06 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Aug 05 0339 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-08-05
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Aug 05      67          25          5
2019 Aug 06      67          25          5
2019 Aug 07      67          15          4
2019 Aug 08      67           8          3
2019 Aug 09      67           5          2
2019 Aug 10      67           8          3
2019 Aug 11      67           8          3
2019 Aug 12      67           5          2
2019 Aug 13      67           5          2
2019 Aug 14      67           5          2
2019 Aug 15      67           5          2
2019 Aug 16      67           5          2
2019 Aug 17      67           8          3
2019 Aug 18      67           8          3
2019 Aug 19      67           5          2
2019 Aug 20      67           5          2
2019 Aug 21      67           5          2
2019 Aug 22      67           5          2
2019 Aug 23      67           5          2
2019 Aug 24      67           5          2
2019 Aug 25      67           5          2
2019 Aug 26      67           8          3
2019 Aug 27      67           8          3
2019 Aug 28      67           8          3
2019 Aug 29      67           5          2
2019 Aug 30      67           5          2
2019 Aug 31      67          12          4
(NOAA)