Monday, October 21, 2019

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Oct 21 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 October 2019

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 14-15 Oct and again on 17-20 Oct with a peak flux of 777 pfu observed at 14/1500 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed was mostly in the 300-400 km/s range but increased to 400-440 km/s on 16-17 Oct. Total field ranged from 1-8 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with mostly quiet conditions with
isolated unsettled periods on 15 and 20 Oct.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 October - 16 November 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 24 Oct, 04-11 Nov, and again on 13-16 Nov. High levels are expected on 25 Oct-03 Nov due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 21-22 Oct and 24-29 Oct with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 24-25 Oct due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Oct 21 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services 
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-10-21
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Oct 21      66          12          4
2019 Oct 22      66           8          3
2019 Oct 23      66           5          2
2019 Oct 24      66          20          5
2019 Oct 25      66          25          5
2019 Oct 26      66          15          4
2019 Oct 27      66          15          4
2019 Oct 28      66          12          4
2019 Oct 29      66           8          3
2019 Oct 30      66           5          2
2019 Oct 31      66           5          2
2019 Nov 01      66           5          2
2019 Nov 02      66           5          2
2019 Nov 03      66           5          2
2019 Nov 04      66           5          2
2019 Nov 05      66           5          2
2019 Nov 06      66           5          2
2019 Nov 07      66           5          2
2019 Nov 08      66           5          2
2019 Nov 09      66           5          2
2019 Nov 10      66           5          2
2019 Nov 11      66           5          2
2019 Nov 12      66           5          2
2019 Nov 13      66           5          2
2019 Nov 14      66           5          2
2019 Nov 15      66           5          2
2019 Nov 16      66           5          2
(NOAA)