Monday, January 20, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jan 20 0136 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 January 2025

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). High levels were observed on 17 Jan following an M7.4 (R2) flare at 17/1335 UTC from Region 3964 (N06, L=247, class/area=Dki/475 on 17 Jan). The region also produced ten
R1 (Minor) events over 17-19 Jan. Region 3961 (S09, L=181, class/area=Eki/600) also produced an M1.1 (R1) flare at 17/0320 UTC. All other active regions were either quiet to contributed only C-class events. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Active conditions were reached on 13 Jan, 15 Jan, 17 Jan, and 19 Jan. Unsettled to quiet conditions were observed for the remainder of the summary period. All elevations in geomagnetic activity were
attributed to influence from multiple, negative polarity CH HSSs. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 January - 15 February 2025

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for high levels of activity (up to R3-Strong), throughout the outlook period. This potential is driven primarily by Regions 3964 (N06, L=249, class/area=Dki/475 on 17 Jan) and 3961 (S09, L=181, class/area=Eki/600 on 17 Jan) on the Earth-facing side of the Sun as well as multiple regions on the Sun's farside that are due to rotated back onto the visible disk later during the outlook period. 

There is a slight chance for proton events of S1 or greater at geosynchronous orbit due primarily to the flare potential from Regions 3964 and 3961 over 20-28 Jan. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to be at high levels on 02-05 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS activity. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 31 Jan - 02 Feb, 11 Feb, and 13 Feb. Active conditions are likely on 20 Jan, 03-05 Feb, 10 Feb, 12 Feb, and 14-15 Feb. Unsettle levels are likely
over 21 Jan, 06 Feb, and 09 Feb. All elevations in geomagnetic activity are anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 20 0136 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-01-20
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Jan 20     235          12          4
2025 Jan 21     235           8          3
2025 Jan 22     235           5          2
2025 Jan 23     230           5          2
2025 Jan 24     230           5          2
2025 Jan 25     235           5          2
2025 Jan 26     240           5          2
2025 Jan 27     245           5          2
2025 Jan 28     245           5          2
2025 Jan 29     245           5          2
2025 Jan 30     240           5          2
2025 Jan 31     235          20          5
2025 Feb 01     230          20          5
2025 Feb 02     225          20          5
2025 Feb 03     225          15          4
2025 Feb 04     225          12          4
2025 Feb 05     230          12          4
2025 Feb 06     225          10          3
2025 Feb 07     215           5          2
2025 Feb 08     205           5          2
2025 Feb 09     195          10          3
2025 Feb 10     190          12          4
2025 Feb 11     185          18          5
2025 Feb 12     185          15          4
2025 Feb 13     185          20          5
2025 Feb 14     185          12          4
2025 Feb 15     190          15          4
(NOAA)