Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jan 06 0242 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 December - 05 January 2025
Solar activity reached R1 (Minor) levels on 30 Dec - 05 Jan, R2 (Moderate) levels on 30 Dec and 03-04 Jan and R3 (Strong) levels on 30 Dec and 03-04 Jan. During this highlight period, a total of 41 C-class, 34 M-class and 5 X-class flares were observed. Region 3936 (N14, L=144, class/area Ekc/400 on 26 Dec) contributed the first X-class (R3-Strong) flare with an X1.5/2n at 30 Dec/0414 UTC. Shortly after, Region 3932 (S17, L=155, class/area Fkc/480 on 23 Dec) contributed an X1.1/1n flare at 30 Dec/0431 UTC. This event
also had a 430 sfu Tenflare associated with it. R1 (Minor) flares were observed on 31 Dec and 01-02 Jan from Regions 3932, 3936 and 3939 (S17, L=084, class/area Dac/130 on 31 Dec).
Activity picked up on 03 Jan with R1 (Minor), R2 (Moderate) and R3 (Strong) flare activity observed from new Region 3947 (N10, L=342, class/area Dkc/310 on 04 Jan). The largest event observed during this time was an X1.8 flare at 04/1248 UTC. Associated with this flare was a Type II Sweep with an estimated velocity of 314 km/s. On 04 Jan/1915 UTC, Region 3939 produced a long-duration C7.6 flare with a western CME modelled as a possible glancing blow hit at Earth on 06 Jan. R1 (Minor) activity predominated on 05 Jan from Region 3947.
A 10 MeV proton event was observed at geosynchronous orbit beginning at 04/2235 UTC, peaked at 20 pfu at 05/0055 UTC and ended at 05/0940 UTC. This event was associated with the long-duration C7.6 flare observed on 04 Jan.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. However, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels of 1,070 pfu at 05/1950 UTC, but was not sustained long enough to warrant a SWPC electron flux alert.
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels on 30 Dec. 31 Dec - 02 Jan saw increased activity levels due to effects from an Earth-bound, 29 Dec CME. Active levels were observed during the last half of 31 Dec and early on 01 Jan. Levels increased to G1 (Minor), G2 (Moderate), G3 (Strong) and G4 (Severe) throughout 01 Jan. Activity levels decreased to unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels on 02 Jan as CME effects lessened. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 03 Jan. On 04 Jan, CME effects from a filament liftoff observed early on 01 Jan, coupled with positive polarity CH HSS influence, were observed. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels were observed. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 05 Jan due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.
Solar wind began the period at about 325 km/s, increased to 500 km/s on 01-02 Jan, decreased to about 400 km/s late on 03 Jan, increased again to about 680 km/s on 05 Jan and ended the period near 500 km/s. Bt values peaked late on 31 Dec to 27 nT while Bz values reached -22 nT midday on 01 Jan.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 January - 01 February 2025
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong) levels due to potential flare activity from numerous active regions.
There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event reaching the S1 (Minor) level during the outlook period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach R1 (Minor) levels on 06 Jan due to likely CME effects. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 07-08 Jan, 11-12 Jan, 16-20 Jan and 31 Jan-01 Feb due to CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on 09-10 Jan, 13-15 Jan and 21-30 Jan.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 06 0242 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2025-01-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2025 Jan 06 172 22 5
2025 Jan 07 165 12 4
2025 Jan 08 165 8 3
2025 Jan 09 170 5 2
2025 Jan 10 170 5 2
2025 Jan 11 175 8 3
2025 Jan 12 180 8 3
2025 Jan 13 180 5 2
2025 Jan 14 175 5 2
2025 Jan 15 175 5 2
2025 Jan 16 180 12 4
2025 Jan 17 190 10 3
2025 Jan 18 200 10 3
2025 Jan 19 210 10 3
2025 Jan 20 220 10 3
2025 Jan 21 230 5 2
2025 Jan 22 230 5 2
2025 Jan 23 230 5 2
2025 Jan 24 230 5 2
2025 Jan 25 230 5 2
2025 Jan 26 225 5 2
2025 Jan 27 220 5 2
2025 Jan 28 215 5 2
2025 Jan 29 210 5 2
2025 Jan 30 205 5 2
2025 Jan 31 200 18 5
2025 Feb 01 170 15 5
(NOAA)
