Monday, February 29, 2016

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 29 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 February 2016

Solar activity reached low levels with only C-class flare activity observed this period. Region 2506 (S05, L=224, class/area=110/Dai o 28 Feb) was responsible for nearly all flare activity this period
including three low-level C-class flares, the largest of which was a C3/Sf flare at 0500 UTC on 27 Feb. A filament eruption centered near S16E19 (vicinity of Region 2506) was observed in SDO/AIA imagery between 0030-0130 UTC on 18 Feb but no associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery suggesting the bulk of the plasma was reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed this period. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 22-24 and 28 Feb with moderate levels observed throughout the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity briefly reached unsettled levels on 23-24 and 26 Feb with quiet conditions observed throughout the remainder of the period under a nominal solar wind regime. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 February - 26 March 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 29 Feb and 15-26 Mar. Solar activity is expected to increase to low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) on 01-14 Mar due to the return of old Region 2497 (N12, L=240) which produced four M-class flares last rotation. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit barring any significant flare activity. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 15-22 Mar, moderate levels on 04-05, 07-08, 13-14, and 23-26 Mar, and at normal levels for the
remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 14-16 Mar and active levels on 01, 06, and 17 Mar due to the effects of multiple recurrent coronal hole
high speed streams (CH HSSs). Quiet or quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field conditions under a nominal solar wind regime are

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 29 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-02-29
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Feb 29      95           5          2
2016 Mar 01     105          15          4
2016 Mar 02     110          12          3
2016 Mar 03     115          10          3
2016 Mar 04     115          10          3
2016 Mar 05     110           8          3
2016 Mar 06     110          15          4
2016 Mar 07     105          10          3
2016 Mar 08     105           8          3
2016 Mar 09     105           5          2
2016 Mar 10     105           5          2
2016 Mar 11     105           8          3
2016 Mar 12     105           5          2
2016 Mar 13     105          12          3
2016 Mar 14     100          30          5
2016 Mar 15     100          30          5
2016 Mar 16      95          30          5
2016 Mar 17      95          15          4
2016 Mar 18      95           8          3
2016 Mar 19      95           5          2
2016 Mar 20      95           5          2
2016 Mar 21      90           5          2
2016 Mar 22      90           5          2
2016 Mar 23      90           5          2
2016 Mar 24      90           5          2
2016 Mar 25      90           5          2
2016 Mar 26      90           5          2
(NOAA)