Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins, May 25, 2026

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 May 25 0601 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 May 2026

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. The largest flare was an M2.3 (R1-Minor) at 22/1029 UTC from Region 4436 (N18, L=333, class/area Dai/200 on 13 May). The region was also responsible for a C8.3 and C9.5 flares on 21/1814 UTC and 21/1825 UTC, respectively. This region was then responsible for the majority of the C-class activity until its rotation off the W limb on 21 May. On 23-24 May, the majority of the C-class activity occurred from Region 4446 (S13, L=141, class/area Dko/280 on 24 May). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 18-24 May due to CH HSS influences. The highest flux observed was 6,667 pfu at 18/1435 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind parameters began the period in a slow decline from 560 km/s as negative polarity CH HSS effects gradually diminished. At 19/0630 UTC, a small shock was observed increasing total field to 7-8 nT while solar wind speed increased to near 625 km/s before beginning to decline once again. This was likely the glancing effects from a CME that left the Sun on 16 May. Solar wind speed continued to decrease to nominal levels through 22 May. The geomagnetic field reacted with quiet to active levels on 19 May. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 18 May and 20-22 May. Quiet conditions occurred on 23-24 May. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 May - 20 June 2026

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 25 May through 07 Jun with the return of old Region 4432 (N14, L=081). Mostly low levels with a chance for M-class flares is expected from 08-20 Jun. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 25-27 May and 12-20 Jun due to CH HSS influences. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 27-29 May, 04 Jun, 09 Jun, and 11-15 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS activity. G2 (Moderate) storm conditions are likely on 11 Jun

and G1 (Minor) storming on 12 Jun due to CIR/CH HSS onset. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 May 25 0601 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-05-25

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 May 25     140           5          2

2026 May 26     145           8          3

2026 May 27     150          12          4

2026 May 28     140          12          4

2026 May 29     140           8          3

2026 May 30     145           5          2

2026 May 31     145           5          2

2026 Jun 01     145           5          2

2026 Jun 02     145           5          2

2026 Jun 03     150           5          2

2026 Jun 04     145          15          4

2026 Jun 05     140           5          2

2026 Jun 06     135           5          2

2026 Jun 07     135           5          2

2026 Jun 08     130           5          2

2026 Jun 09     125          12          4

2026 Jun 10     130           5          2

2026 Jun 11     130          30          6

2026 Jun 12     125          25          5

2026 Jun 13     120          12          4

2026 Jun 14     115          10          3

2026 Jun 15     115           8          3

2026 Jun 16     110           5          2

2026 Jun 17     110           5          2

2026 Jun 18     110           5          2

2026 Jun 19     115           5          2

2026 Jun 20     120           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins, May 18, 2026

 :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 May 18 0431 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 May 2026

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 16 May due to four M-class flares. The largest were an M1.9/2N (R1-Minor) at 16/1612UTC from Region 4436 (N18, L=330, class/area=Dao/200 on 11 May) and a second

M1.9 flare (R1-Moderate) at 16/1742UTC from Region 4435 (N22, L=040, class/area=Dao/070 on 15 May). The 1612UTC M1.9 was associated with a Type IV radio sweep, two 10.7 cm radio bursts, and a filament

eruption that was centered at approximately N21W07, which lead to a complex CME signature in coronagraph imagery. The first front was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1636UTC, and the second front

became visible at approximately 16/1700 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggests potential for a glancing blow at Earth by mid UTC-day on 18 May, with the bulk of the material passing northward

of Earth's orbit. 

The other two M-flares, an M1.4 at 17/0339UTC and an M1.3 at 16/1629, were also from Regions 4435 and 4436, with the M1.3 following on the heels of the 16/1612UTC M1.9. The other 11 numbered

active regions on this visible disk were either quiet or only produced C-class activity during the past week. 3 Type II radio sweeps and an additional 10.7cm radio burst were observed during the

summary period, but they were not associated with any Earth-directed activity 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels for the majority of the summary period, before increasing to high levels at 16/1740UTC. During the summary

period, the maximum value reached was 6,120 pfu at 17/1740UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 15-16 May due to a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream becoming geoeffective late on 15 May.

Total magnetic field strength, Bt, increased all throughout 15 May, from approximately 3 nT to a peak of 17 nT at 15/1555UTC. The north-south component, Bz, rotated between +/- 11 nT, with maximum

southward deflections of approximately -13 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field had returned to background levels by the end of 16 May. A smaller positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream

became geoeffective on 13 May with a max Bt of 13 nT and maximum Bz southward deflection of -9 nT; however this only produced unsettled geomagnetic conditions and no NOAA Geomagnetic Storming thresholds

were reached. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 May - 13 June 2026

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels throughout the outlook period, with M-class activity (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) ranging from a chance to likely and X-class activity (R3, Strong) ranging from a slight chance to a chance, due to the flare potential of several active regions currently on the visible disk and those both expected to return and indicated by Solar Orbiter magnetic imagery. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 18 May and 21-23 May due to the influence from the current negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream and an anticipated solar sector boundary cross on 21 May. The remaining days of the outlook period are likely to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels over 18-19 May due to potential influences from the CME that left the Sun on 16 May, arriving in the near-Earth environment in the midst of the current high-speed stream. The remainder of the outlook period is anticipated to be at largely quiet to unsettled levels. 

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 May 18 0431 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-05-18

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 May 18     105          21          5

2026 May 19     110          21          5

2026 May 20     115           8          3

2026 May 21     115          10          3

2026 May 22     110           8          3

2026 May 23     112           5          2

2026 May 24     112           5          2

2026 May 25     115           5          2

2026 May 26     115           5          2

2026 May 27     115          12          4

2026 May 28     120          10          3

2026 May 29     125           8          3

2026 May 30     130           8          3

2026 May 31     135           8          3

2026 Jun 01     130           5          2

2026 Jun 02     130           5          2

2026 Jun 03     130           5          2

2026 Jun 04     125          12          4

2026 Jun 05     120           5          2

2026 Jun 06     115           5          2

2026 Jun 07     110           5          2

2026 Jun 08     105           5          2

2026 Jun 09     105          10          3

2026 Jun 10     100           5          2

2026 Jun 11      95          30          6

2026 Jun 12      95          25          5

2026 Jun 13      95          12          4

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins, May 11, 2026

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 May 11 0150 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity  04 - 10 May 2026

Solar activity reached high levels on 10 May due to an M5.7/2b flare (R2-Moderate) at 10/1339UTC from Region 4436 (N19, L=330, class/area=Dao/beta on 10 May), the strongest of the period.

Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep (est. 650 km/s), Tenflare (550sfu), and a CME signature first observed in coronagraph imagery at 10/1348UTC towards the NE. Analysis and modeling of the event is ongoing at the time of this writing. 

Region 4424 (N17, L=192, class/area=Eai/160 on 30 Apr) also produced an M-class event with an M1.8 flare (R1-Minor) observed at 04/0133 UTC. The other 10 numbered active regions on this visible disk were either mostly quiet or only produced C-class activity during the past week 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the summary period. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 04 May and G1 (Minor) levels on 05 May due to the influence of a passing CME. Total magnetic field strength only reached a peak of 11 nT during that time, but Bz rotated as far southward as -10 nT and was sustained southward from late on 04 May through midday on 05 May. Despite the influence of a positive polarity A coronal hole beginning late on 07 May, the mostly northward Bz component results in only quiet to unsettled conditions through the end of the reporting period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 May - 06 June 2026

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class activity (R1/R2-inor/Moderate), and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong), throughout the outlook period due to the flare potential of several active regions both currently on the visible disk and those expected to return from the Sun's  farside. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 17-20 May due to the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole. The remainder of the 

outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels over 15-17 May; active conditions are likely on 18 May, 23 May, 27 May, and 03 Jun; unsettled conditions are likely over 11 May, 13 May, 21-22 May, and 28 May - 31 May. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, coronal hole HSSs. The remainder of the outlook. The period is likely to be mostly quiet. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 May 11 0150 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-05-11

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 May 11     128           8          3

2026 May 12     128           5          2

2026 May 13     122          10          3

2026 May 14     130           5          2

2026 May 15     125          25          5

2026 May 16     125          20          5

2026 May 17     120          18          5

2026 May 18     122          15          4

2026 May 19     130           5          2

2026 May 20     130           5          2

2026 May 21     130           8          3

2026 May 22     120          10          3

2026 May 23     125          12          4

2026 May 24     125           5          2

2026 May 25     125           5          2

2026 May 26     130           5          2

2026 May 27     135          12          4

2026 May 28     135          10          3

2026 May 29     130           8          3

2026 May 30     125           8          3

2026 May 31     122           8          3

2026 Jun 01     118           5          2

2026 Jun 02     115           5          2

2026 Jun 03     120           5          2

2026 Jun 04     120          12          4

2026 Jun 05     120           5          2

2026 Jun 06     120           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins-May 4, 2026

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 May 04 0142 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 April - 03 May 2026

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 27 and 18 Apr due to M-class (R1-Minor) activity from Region 4425 (N05, L=162, class/area=Ekc/320 on 28 Apr) and 4420 (S18, L=246, class/area=Eki/300 on 21 Sep). Region 4420 produced the strongest flare of the period, an M1.5/Sn (R1) flare at 28/1353 UTC. The region also produced two Type II radio sweeps alongside C-class activity. The ejecta associated with the activity originated from near the NW limb and was not suspected to contain an Earth-directed component. 

The other 13 numbered active regions on the visible disk were either mostly quiet or only produced C-class X-ray activity. No other Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate levels over the past seven days. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 30 Apr and active levels on 01 May due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached a brief peak of 14 nT on 30 Apr, with Bz reaching as far south as -12 nT. Solar wind speeds peak at just over 500 km/s early on 01 May and gradually waned over the next two days. The remainder of the period was at quiet to unsettled levels. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 May - 30 May 2026

Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for M-Class (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) throughout the outlook period due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk as well as multiple complex regions due to return from the farside.  

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to reach high levels on 15-20 May due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 15-17 May; active levels are likely on 08 May, 18 May, 23 May, and 27 May; unsettled levels are likely on 04 May, 09 May, 21-22 May, and 27 May. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are forecast in anticipation of influence fron multiple, recurrent, coronal hole HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels. 

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 May 04 0142 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-05-04

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 May 04     140           8          3

2026 May 05     140           6          2

2026 May 06     135           6          2

2026 May 07     130           6          2

2026 May 08     135          12          4

2026 May 09     130          10          3

2026 May 10     130           6          2

2026 May 11     125           5          2

2026 May 12     125           5          2

2026 May 13     120           5          2

2026 May 14     115           5          2

2026 May 15     120          25          5

2026 May 16     120          20          5

2026 May 17     125          20          5

2026 May 18     130          15          4

2026 May 19     130           5          2

2026 May 20     130           5          2

2026 May 21     130           8          3

2026 May 22     120          10          3

2026 May 23     125          12          4

2026 May 24     125           5          2

2026 May 25     125           5          2

2026 May 26     130           5          2

2026 May 27     135          12          4

2026 May 28     135          10          3

2026 May 29     130           8          3

2026 May 30     125           8          3

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 Apr 27 0538 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 April 2026

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. The strongest events of the period were an X2.4 flare (R3-Strong) at 24/0107 UTC and an X2.5/2B (R3) at 24/0813 UTC from Region 4419 (N14, L=314,

class/area=Eki/360 on 17 Apr). The X2.4 flare had an associated Tenflare and CME signature. Modeling of the CME indicated possible influence from the far periphery of the event on 26 Apr. The X2.5

flare had an associated Type II (est 1,293 km/s), Type IV, and Tenflare (570sfu) as well as a CME signature in coronagraph imagery. Modeling of this event suggested the primary bulk of the plasma was

not on the Sun-Earth line. 

Other major X-ray events included an M6.4/1F (R2-Moderate) at 24/1815 UTC from Region 4419. The resulting CME was off the Sun-Earth line. An M6.0 (R2) flare 26/2257 UTC from Region 4420

(N16, L=225, class/area=Fki/400 on 25 Apr). As associated Type II (est 834 km/s) was reported with this event as well as a 30,000sfu burst on 245MHz. No CME signature was identified in subsequent

coronagraph imagery. 

13 other M-class (R1-Minor) events were observed over the past week with many producing radio and CME signatures. However, those events that were associated with CMEs did not contain an Earth-directed component. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 20-24 Apr and remained at normal background to moderate levels for the remainder of the report reporting period. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 20-21Apr due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds peaked around 550 km/s and total magnetic field strength

increased to a brief peak of 10 nT on 20 Apr. The Bz component reached as far south as -8 nT during the HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed over 22-25 Apr. A negative polarity coronal

hole, with possible weak embedded influence from a CME that left the Sun on 24 Apr, caused isolated active levels on 26 Apr. Solar wind speeds remained below 500 km/s with this coronal hole. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 April - 23 May 2026

Solar activity is expected to reach moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for high (R3/Strong), from 27 Apr - 04 May due to the flare potential from multiple active regions on the solar disk. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2). 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 12 Apr, 29 Apr - 05 May, 08-14 May, and 17-21 May due to the anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent, CH HSS. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 07 May and 15-16 May. Active conditions are likely on 27 Apr, 30 Apr, 08 May, 17-18 May, and 23 May.

Unsettled conditions are likely on 29 Apr, 01 May, 03-04 May, 09 May, and 21-22 May. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 Apr 27 0538 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-04-27

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 Apr 27     155          12          4

2026 Apr 28     150           7          2

2026 Apr 29     150          10          3

2026 Apr 30     152          14          4

2026 May 01     152           8          3

2026 May 02     148           5          2

2026 May 03     142           8          3

2026 May 04     140           8          3

2026 May 05     140           5          2

2026 May 06     135           5          2

2026 May 07     135          20          5

2026 May 08     135          15          4

2026 May 09     120           8          3

2026 May 10     110           5          2

2026 May 11     115           5          2

2026 May 12     115           5          2

2026 May 13     120           5          2

2026 May 14     120           5          2

2026 May 15     118          25          5

2026 May 16     130          20          5

2026 May 17     135          20          4

2026 May 18     135          15          4

2026 May 19     135           5          2

2026 May 20     140           5          2

2026 May 21     140           8          3

2026 May 22     145          10          3

2026 May 23     145          12          4

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 Apr 20 0331 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 April 2026

Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Very low levels occurred on 14, 15 and 19 Apr, while low levels were observed on 13, 16, 17, and 18 April. 

Region 4419 (N14, L=314, class/area=Eki/360 on 17 Apr) was the most active region of the period, responsible for 5 out of the 7 C-class flares observed during the week, including the largest one: a C4.1/Sf at 17/0442 UTC. The remaining 2 C-class flares of the period were: a C1.1/Sf at 13/1137 UTC from Region 4414 (N15, L=026, class/area=Dro/030 on 08 Apr) and a C1.6 at 18/0704 UTC from Region 4416 (N19, L=047, class/area=Dai/140 on 12 Apr). Coronal activity was observed during the week with some filament eruptions and few CMEs without Earth-directed components. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 13-17 Apr, followed by a day at moderate levels on 18 Apr and returning to high levels on 19 Apr, with a maximum flux of 3,250 pfu observed at 15/1800 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to Moderate storm levels during the period. From 13 to 17 Apr, the geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels. On 18 Apr, the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS influence disturbed the Geospace, elevating the activity from unsettled to Moderate storm levels. On 19 Apr, Moderate storm levels were observed during an isolated synoptic period (0600-0900 UTC) and the geomagnetic activity returned to quiet level by the end of the day as the CH HSS effects waned. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 April - 16 May 2026

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a varying chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) flares through 16 May. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring any significant, non-recurrent solar activity. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 20-22 Apr, 27-28 Apr, 30 Apr-05 May, and 08-14 May. Normal to moderate electron flux levels are expected on 23-26 Apr, 29 Apr, 06-07 May, and 15-16 May. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at quiet to active levels during most of the outlook period, with the exception of 5 days when G1 (Minor) storm levels are anticipated due to the recurrent influence of CH HSS: 29-30 Apr (-CH HSS), 07 May (+CH HSS) and 15-16 May (-CH HSS). 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 Apr 20 0331 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-04-20

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 Apr 20     105          18          4

2026 Apr 21     110          15          4

2026 Apr 22     120           8          3

2026 Apr 23     125           5          2

2026 Apr 24     120           8          3

2026 Apr 25     115           8          3

2026 Apr 26     120           5          2

2026 Apr 27     125           5          2

2026 Apr 28     125           5          2

2026 Apr 29     125          20          5

2026 Apr 30     125          18          5

2026 May 01     125          12          4

2026 May 02     125          10          4

2026 May 03     115           8          3

2026 May 04     108           8          3

2026 May 05     105           5          2

2026 May 06     100           5          2

2026 May 07      95          20          5

2026 May 08      90          15          4

2026 May 09      90           8          3

2026 May 10      95           5          2

2026 May 11     100           5          2

2026 May 12     105           5          2

2026 May 13     110           5          2

2026 May 14     110           5          2

2026 May 15     105          25          5

2026 May 16     105          20          5

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 Apr 13 0104 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact  www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 April 2026

Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels during the period. Moderate levels were reached on 09 Apr, with low levels observed on 06-08 Apr and 11-12 Apr. Very low levels occurred on 10 Apr. 

Region 4409 (N02, L=158, class/area=Eai/190 on 07 Apr) was the most active region of the period, producing 11 C-class flares and the only M-class flare of the period, an impulsive M1.0/Sf at 09/0845

UTC. Region 4417 (S08, L=123, class/area=Dao/30 on 12 Apr) also contributed notable activity with 7 C-class flares after appearing quickly on 11 Apr near the West limb. Other activity included a

C8.7/Sf flare from Region 4414 (N15, L=26, class/area Dro/30 on 08 Apr) at 08/1543 UTC, which was associated with Type III radio emissions and a weak CME without any Earth-directed components. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the reporting period. Flux levels reached a peak value of 10,679 pfu at 09/1605 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels during the period. The beginning of the period (06-07 Apr) saw quiet to unsettled conditions as the influence of a negative polarity coronal

hole high speed stream (-CH HSS) continued to wane. From 10-12 Apr, quiet to active levels were observed under the onset and influence of a positive polarity CH HSS (+CH HSS). Quiet conditions prevailed

during all other days of the period under a nominal solar wind regime. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 April - 09 May 2026

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a varying chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) flares through 09 May. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring any significant, non-recurrent solar activity. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 13-17 Apr, 19-24 Apr, 26-28 Apr, 30 Apr-05 May, and 08-09 May. Normal to moderate flux levels are

expected on 18 Apr, 25 Apr, 29 Apr, and 06-07 May. 

Geomagnetic field activity is anticipated to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 19 Apr and 29 Apr due to -CH HSS influences, and on 07 May due to +CH HSS influences. Active

conditions are expected on 18 Apr, 20 Apr, and 30 Apr-01 May in response to -CH HSS effects, and on 15 Apr, 25 Apr, and 08 May due to +CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are

expected for all other days of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 Apr 13 0104 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-04-13

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 Apr 13      95           8          3

2026 Apr 14      90           8          3

2026 Apr 15     100          12          3

2026 Apr 16     105           8          3

2026 Apr 17     110           5          2

2026 Apr 18     110          15          3

2026 Apr 19     110          20          4

2026 Apr 20     120          12          4

2026 Apr 21     130          10          3

2026 Apr 22     140           8          3

2026 Apr 23     145           5          2

2026 Apr 24     145           8          3

2026 Apr 25     140          12          4

2026 Apr 26     140          10          3

2026 Apr 27     140           5          2

2026 Apr 28     140           5          2

2026 Apr 29     135          20          5

2026 Apr 30     130          18          5

2026 May 01     125          12          4

2026 May 02     125          10          3

2026 May 03     115           8          3

2026 May 04     108           8          3

2026 May 05     105           5          2

2026 May 06     100           5          2

2026 May 07      95          20          4

2026 May 08      90          15          3

2026 May 09      90           8          3

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 Apr 06 0211 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 March - 05 April 2026

Solar activity reached high levels on 30 Mar and 04 Apr, moderate levels on 02-03 Apr, with low levels observed on 31 Mar, 01 Apr, and 5 Apr. 

Region 4409 (N02, L=156, class/area=Eai/170 on 04 Apr) was the most active of the period, producing 50 C-class flares and six M-class flares. Region 4405 (S27, L=220, class/area=Eai/220 on 02 Apr) added the strongest flare of the period, an X1.4/Sf flare, on 30 Mar at

0319 UTC. Accompanying the flare was a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1872 km/s) and a partial halo CME first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 30/0312 UTC. Expected impacts from this CME were on 01 Apr. Region 4409 also produced a C8.1 flare at 01/1958 UTC.

Accompanying this flare was a filament eruption and subsequent CME that had a likely Earth-directed trajectory with impacts likely felt on 03-04 Apr. 

Slightly elevated proton levels were observed from 01-05 Apr, but conditions remained below alert thresholds throughout the period.   The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout most of the period of 30 Mar - 05 Apr, with a

peak flux value of 6,000 pfu observed at 05/1645 UTC. The only exception was on 02 Apr when conditions dropped to moderate levels for that 24-hour reporting period. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong) storm levels during the 30 Mar - 05 Apr period. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 30 Mar - 01 Apr, and most of 05 Apr (aside from an isolated active period at the beginning of the UT day). Conditions

increased to active to G2 (Moderate) levels on 02 Apr following the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Conditions remained at active to G1 (Minor) levels through midday on 03 Apr, when they increased to G3 (Strong) levels with the

arrival of the anticipated CME from 01 Apr (C8.1 flare and filament eruption). Conditions then decreased to G1 levels to start 04 Apr, before decreasing to quiet to active conditions lasting through 05 Apr. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 April - 02 May 2026

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a varying chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares, and a slight chance for X-Class (R3/Strong) flares from 06 Apr through 02 May. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring any significant, non-recurrent solar activity. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 06-09 Apr, 11-16 Apr, and 18 Apr-02 May. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected on 10 and 17 Apr. 

Geomagnetic field activity is anticipated to reach G1/G2 (Minor/Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 18-19, and 29 Apr due to the influence of negative polarity CH HSS (-CH HSS). Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 04 April in response to a negative

polarity CH HSS (-CH HSS). Unsettled to Active levels are expected on 06-07 Apr, 20-22 Apr, and 30 Apr, as well as 01-02 May associated with negative polarity CH HSS effects. On 10-13 and 25-26 April, positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to bump geomagnetic

conditions to unsettled to active levels. Mostly quiet levels are expected during all other days of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 Apr 06 0211 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-04-06

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 Apr 06     118          10          3

2026 Apr 07     115           8          3

2026 Apr 08     113           5          2

2026 Apr 09     111           5          2

2026 Apr 10     108          12          4

2026 Apr 11     106          18          5

2026 Apr 12     105          10          4

2026 Apr 13     108           8          3

2026 Apr 14     110           7          2

2026 Apr 15     115           5          2

2026 Apr 16     115           4          2

2026 Apr 17     120           7          2

2026 Apr 18     122          48          6

2026 Apr 19     124          22          5

2026 Apr 20     130          12          4

2026 Apr 21     140          12          4

2026 Apr 22     150           8          3

2026 Apr 23     155           5          2

2026 Apr 24     160           8          3

2026 Apr 25     155          12          4

2026 Apr 26     150          10          3

2026 Apr 27     145           5          2

2026 Apr 28     140           5          2

2026 Apr 29     140          20          5

2026 Apr 30     135          18          5

2026 May 01     130          12          4

2026 May 02     120           8          3

(NOAA)

U.K. Propagation Update

 

RSGB

RadCom Assistant Editor

  April 2, 2026

Over the last week, we have had a fair sprinkling of sunspots, along with some enormous coronal holes, including one almost rectangular hole. 

Coronal holes are lower-energy areas on the Sun with open magnetic field lines, allowing solar plasma to flow out.

Geomagnetic conditions have mainly been settled, with the Kp index hitting a maximum of 3.67 over the past five days.

We had a long M1.3 solar flare at 0415UTC on Saturday, 28 March, and an

X1.5 class solar flare on Monday, 30 March.

Active region 4405 erupted at 0318UTC and launched a halo coronal mass ejection, or CME, into space that hit the Earth on Wednesday, 1 April.

Meanwhile, the solar flux index has remained above 140 for a few days, which bodes well for HF propagation.

NOAA predicts that the solar flux index will start at 145 at the beginning of the coming week and fall to 112 by Saturday, 11 April.

Geomagnetic conditions are set to be unsettled from Thursday to Sunday,

9-12 April, with a potential Kp index of 5 or even 6.

If this comes to pass, expect lower maximum usable frequencies, or MUFs, and disrupted HF conditions, especially on polar paths.

HF DX to look out for this week includes:

VHF and up propagation news from G3YLA and G4BAO:

The equinoxes are a time of the year when the Atlantic jet stream typically blows across the UK as it migrates north from the Mediterranean in the winter to near Iceland in the summer.

The weather for the coming week is going to see a succession of lows driven by the Atlantic jet stream crossing the UK with bands of rain and scattered blustery showers.

These may represent chances of some rain scatter for those on the upper GHz bands but this pattern suggests limited tropo options.

The prospects for meteor scatter are no better since we remain some way short of the next major meteor shower in late April. In these situations, your best chances are from random meteors, which tend to peak in the early pre-dawn hours.

The equinox also gets credit as being a preferred time for auroras since there is a better coupling between the Earth’s magnetic field and the solar wind.

It is too early in the year for much Sporadic-E activity, but keep a check on the Sporadic-E graphs on propquest.co.uk  for signs of brief upticks. Incidentally, some maintenance work is currently under way on the website so apologies for any interruptions.

For EME operators, Moon declination is now negative, reaching its minimum on Wednesday, 8 April. At this point, the Moon is up for only six hours and gets to a mere nine degrees elevation in the UK.

The Moon is also furthest away, or at its apogee, on Tuesday, 7 April so path losses are at their highest. 144MHz sky noise starts low but quickly climbs to a high of more than 2,700 Kelvin on Wednesday, 8 April.

https://rsgb.org/main/blog/news/gb2rs/propagation-news/2026/04/02/propagation-news-5-april-2026/

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 Mar 23 0245 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 March 2026

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 16-18 Mar, with low levels observed on 19-22 Mar. Region 4392 (S16, L=018, class/area=Csi/200 on 17 Mar) produced most of the flare activity observed throughout

the week, including three M-flares (R1-Minor). AR4392 produced an M2.7 flare at 16/1215 UTC with accompanying Type-II (est. 1,227 km/s), Type-IV, and Tenflare (380 sfu) emissions. The subsequent

asymmetric halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1236 UTC, arrived at Earth on 20 Mar. AR4392 produced another M2.7 flare at 18/0842 UTC with accompanying Type-II (est. 860 km/s) and

Tenflare (229 sfu) emissions. The associated CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 18/0936 UTC, arrived simultaneously with the 16 Mar CME on 20 Mar. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 16-20 and 22 Mar. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 21 Mar following a period of an elevated geomagnetic field

activity. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storm levels on 20-22 Mar, following the arrival of multiple CMEs  (that left the Sun on 16 and 18 Mar) on 20 Mar. The remainder of the

period was at quiet and quiet to unsettled levels under ambient solar wind conditions. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 March - 18 April 2026

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a varying chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 18 Apr. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23-25, 27-28, 30-31 Mar and 04-09, 11-15 Apr. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected to prevail

throughout the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 23 Mar due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are

likely on 03-04 Apr in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 09 and 11 Apr, with G2 (Moderate) storm periods likely on 10 Apr, due to

positive polarity CH HSS influences. G2 (Moderate) storm periods are likely again on 18 Apr following the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 Mar 23 0245 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-03-23

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 Mar 23     120          34          6

2026 Mar 24     120          14          3

2026 Mar 25     122          12          3

2026 Mar 26     125          12          3

2026 Mar 27     130           8          3

2026 Mar 28     130           5          2

2026 Mar 29     128           8          3

2026 Mar 30     125          15          4

2026 Mar 31     125          10          3

2026 Apr 01     130           5          2

2026 Apr 02     120           5          2

2026 Apr 03     120          18          5

2026 Apr 04     115          24          5

2026 Apr 05     110          10          3

2026 Apr 06     120          15          4

2026 Apr 07     120           8          3

2026 Apr 08     118           7          2

2026 Apr 09     120          25          5

2026 Apr 10     110          40          6

2026 Apr 11     112          20          5

2026 Apr 12     115          12          3

2026 Apr 13     115           8          3

2026 Apr 14     110           7          2

2026 Apr 15     115           5          2

2026 Apr 16     115           4          2

2026 Apr 17     120           7          2

2026 Apr 18     122          48          6

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 Mar 16 0302 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC cweb ontact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 March 2026

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels with a total of 37 C-class flares and 2 M-class flares observed. The largest flares of the period were an M1.2 flare on 13/0955 UTC from Region 4384 (N10, L=150, class/area Eho/300 on 03 Mar), a C8.9/1n flare on 13/2023  from Region 4392 (S15, L=017, class/area Cso/170 on 15 Mar), and an M1.0/Sf flare on 15/0939 UTC from Region 4392. The most active region of the period was Region 4381 (N08, L=173, class/area Eao/220 on 03 Mar), which produced a long-duration C8.0 flare on 13/1518 UTC in addition to 11 other weak C-class events. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 09 - 13 Mar and 15 Mar with a peak flux of 2,940 pfu observed at 12/1545 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 14 Mar. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels throughout the 09-15 Mar period. The week began at quiet to unsettled levels on 09 Mar, with active conditions observed on 10-11 Mar due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Conditions returned to mostly quiet to unsettled levels by 12 Mar. Activity intensified midday on 13 Mar, reaching G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) storm levels following the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. These storming levels continued through the first half of 14 Mar before waning to unsettled and active levels later in the day. On 15 Mar, the field reached active levels early in the period, followed by a return to quiet and unsettled conditions as positive polarity CH HSS effects gradually diminished. 

Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of two distinct CH HSS regimes during the period. The week began under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS, with solar wind speeds initially ranging between 450-500 km/s before gradually declining to ambient levels near 400 km/s by 12 Mar. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained mostly around 6 nT during this interval, while the North-South (Bz) component saw periodic southward deflections to -7 nT. A solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) occurred early on 13 Mar, indicated by a shift in the phi angle from the towards to away sector. This was immediately followed by the onset of a more powerful positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds rose sharply from 400 km/s to a peak of 725 km/s on 14 Mar. During this period, Bt reached 13 nT and the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT.

By 15 Mar, solar wind speeds began a slow decline but remained elevated near 600 km/s through the end of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 March - 11 April 2026

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares throughout the outlook period. Elevated probabilities are related to the flare potential of both currently observed spot groups as well as the potential from returning regions. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 16-20, 22-30 Mar, 04-09, and 11 Apr due to the influence of multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity levels are likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 22 Mar, 04 Apr, 09 Apr, and 11 Apr due to CH HSS influences. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 11 Mar and 10 Apr due to CH HSS influences. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 16-18, 20, 23-27, 30-31 Mar, and 03 and 05-07 Apr. All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are associated with the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 Mar 16 0302 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-03-16

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 Mar 16     108          15          4

2026 Mar 17     108          10          3

2026 Mar 18     105           8          3

2026 Mar 19     105           5          2

2026 Mar 20     105          10          3

2026 Mar 21     100          35          5

2026 Mar 22     102          25          5

2026 Mar 23     105          15          4

2026 Mar 24     110          15          4

2026 Mar 25     100          18          5

2026 Mar 26     110          10          3

2026 Mar 27     120           8          3

2026 Mar 28     125           5          2

2026 Mar 29     125           5          2

2026 Mar 30     125          15          4

2026 Mar 31     125          10          3

2026 Apr 01     130           5          2

2026 Apr 02     135           5          2

2026 Apr 03     140          18          5

2026 Apr 04     135          20          5

2026 Apr 05     135           8          3

2026 Apr 06     130          15          4

2026 Apr 07     135           8          3

2026 Apr 08     130           5          2

2026 Apr 09     125          25          5

2026 Apr 10     120          40          6

2026 Apr 11     115          20          5

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletin, February 23, 2026

 

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletin, February 23, 2026

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 Feb 23 0204 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 February 2026

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. The largest event was an M2.5 flare (R1-Minor) at 16/0435 UTC from a location beyond the east limb. A Type II radio sweep (est. 310 km/s) was observed on 18 Feb and associated with a large eruption just beyond the southeast limb. Only low-levels C-class activity was observed over 17-23 Feb. The sun ended the summary period free of sunspots on the visible disk for the first time since 2022. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels over 16-20 Feb following sustained higher wind speeds from a positive polarity coronal hole. Normal to moderate levels were observed over 21-22 Feb. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached a peak of G2 (Moderate) levels on 16 Feb due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed over 17-19 Feb. Active levels over 20-21 Feb were likely associated with transient passage. By 22 Feb,a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS increased geomagnetic conditions up to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Wind speeds were observed between 600-700 km/s on 22 Feb as the high speed stream set in. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 February - 21 March 2026

Solar activity is expected to be at very low, with a good change for C-class flares and a slight change for M-class flare (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23 Feb - 03 Mar, 06-08 Mar, 11-12 Mar, 15-19 Mar, and 21 Mar due to anticipated influence of multiple recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) levels on 21 Mar.;G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 23 Feb, 10 Mar, 14 Mar, and 20 Mar; active levels are likely on 24 Feb, 05-06 Mar, 12-13 Mar, 15-16 Mar, and 19 Mar; unsettled levels are likely over 25 Feb, 07 Mar, 09 Mar, 11 Mar, and 17-18 Mar. All increases in geomagnetic activity are anticipated due to expected influence from multiple, recurrent coronal hole HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 Feb 23 0204 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact  www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-02-23

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 Feb 23     112          20          5

2026 Feb 24     115          12          4

2026 Feb 25     118          10          3

2026 Feb 26     120           5          2

2026 Feb 27     122           5          2

2026 Feb 28     122           5          2

2026 Mar 01     122           5          2

2026 Mar 02     125           5          2

2026 Mar 03     125           5          2

2026 Mar 04     125           5          2

2026 Mar 05     125          15          4

2026 Mar 06     130          15          4

2026 Mar 07     130           8          3

2026 Mar 08     130           5          2

2026 Mar 09     125           8          3

2026 Mar 10     122          18          5

2026 Mar 11     120           8          3

2026 Mar 12     118          12          4

2026 Mar 13     116          12          4

2026 Mar 14     116          20          5

2026 Mar 15     116          18          4

2026 Mar 16     115          12          4

2026 Mar 17     115          10          3

2026 Mar 18     115          10          3

2026 Mar 19     112          12          4

2026 Mar 20     110          18          5

2026 Mar 21     110          38          6

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2026 Feb 09 0534 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contactt www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 February 2026

Solar activity reached high levels on 02-04 Feb, moderate levels on 05 and 08 Feb, and low levels on 06-07 Feb. The flare activity was dominated by Region 4366 (N14, L=204, class/area Fkc/1100 on 03

Feb). This region produced 31 C-class flares, 38 M-class (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), and four X-class (R3-Strong) flares. The X-class flares included: an X2.8 at 02/0036 UTC, an X1.6 at 02/0814

UTC, an X1.5 at 03/1408 UTC, and an X4.2 at 04/1213 UTC. Region 4366 also added four M-class flares that were greater than the M5 level.

These included: an M5.2 at 02/0251 UTC, an M6.7 at 02/1124 UTC, an M7.2/1n at 03/0701 UTC, and an M7.2 at 03/1456 UTC. The remaining 34 M-class flares produced by Region 4366 were at the R1/R2 levels,

ranging from M1.1 to M4.9. Surprisingly, very few radio emissions were observed in association with the increased flare activity.  There were only three F10.7 cm radio bursts recorded during the

week. The first was a burst of 140 sfu associated with the X1.5 flare at 03/1408 UTC, second was a 110 sfu burst that accompanied the M2.2 flare at 05/1934 UTC, and last, a 440 sfu burst that

coincided with the M2.7 flare at 08/1353 UTC. The only other radio signature of note was a Type II radio sweep that was detected by USAF observatories starting at about 02/0000 UTC, with an estimated

velocity of 955 km/s. No other radio signatures were noted. Other activity included a large, slow-moving filament eruption centered near N18W30 that began at 03/0400 UTC as seen in SUVI 304 imagery.

An associated CME was observed off the NW limb at 03/1836 UTC. There was another narrow eruption noted off the NE, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 04/1426 UTC. This event was likely a

sympathetic eruption triggered by the X4.2, starting at approximately 04/1350 UTC near N15W22 between Regions 4366 and 4367 (N09, L=174, class/area Cao/50 on 03 Feb). There is a slight

potential of minor glancing blows from these eruptions early on 09 Feb. A coronal mass ejection was observed off the south/southwest limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 05/1548 UTC. The source is likely

associated with an M1.8/1N flare from Region 4362 (S17, L=207,  class/area Dao/50 on 07 Feb) that peaked at 05/1513 UTC. Surface signatures in SUVI 284 imagery showed a faint southerly deflected

EUV wave. Model output suggests a glancing effect late on 08 Feb to early on 09 Feb. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit on 02-08 Feb.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 02, 03, 04, and 08 Feb, with a peak flux value of 13,970 pfu at 04/1605 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Feb following the arrival of a CME from an X8.1 flare that originated from Region 4366 at 01/2357 UTC. Conditions were at quiet to

unsettled levels on 02-03 Feb and for the first half of 04 Feb before increasing to active levels following the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS). Quiet to active

conditions were observed on 06-07 Feb with combined influence from a negative polarity CH HSS and a possible passing transient. Quiet to unsettled levels returned by 08 Feb as -CH HSS effects lingered. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 February - 07 March 2026

Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels with further M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares expected and a chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) on 09-10 Feb as Region 4366

transits the western limb. Low levels, with a chance for M-class flares, are expected on 11-22 Feb. An increase to moderate to high levels is once again likely on 23-28 Feb as Region 4366 returns to

the visible disk. Conditions should again return to low to moderate levels on 01-07 Mar as old Region 4366 rotates to the far side once again. 

There is a chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels through 12 Feb as Region 4366 transits the visible disk and beyond. Levels are likely to be below the S1

(Minor) level on 12-22 Feb. An increase to above the S1 (Minor) storm levels 23-28 Feb is possible as Region 4366 returns to the visible disk. Chances decrease on 01-07 Mar as old Region 4366

rotates to the far side once again. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 09-10 Feb, 16-21 Feb, 24-25 Feb, and 05-07 Mar as CH HSS influence sporadically continue. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 09-10 Feb as CH HSS influence decreases. Barring the potential for CME activity, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are

expected from 11-15 Feb, 22-23 Feb, and 26 Feb - 04 Mar. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 16-21 Feb, 24-25 Feb, and 05-07 Mar due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS effects. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2026 Feb 09 0534 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2026-02-09

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2026 Feb 09     165          15          4

2026 Feb 10     160           8          3

2026 Feb 11     155           5          2

2026 Feb 12     150           5          2

2026 Feb 13     145           5          2

2026 Feb 14     140           5          2

2026 Feb 15     150           5          2

2026 Feb 16     160          15          4

2026 Feb 17     170          15          4

2026 Feb 18     180          15          4

2026 Feb 19     175          15          4

2026 Feb 20     170          15          4

2026 Feb 21     160          15          4

2026 Feb 22     150           8          3

2026 Feb 23     140           8          3

2026 Feb 24     135          20          5

2026 Feb 25     130          20          5

2026 Feb 26     130           8          3

2026 Feb 27     140           5          2

2026 Feb 28     160           5          2

2026 Mar 01     165           5          2

2026 Mar 02     170           5          2

2026 Mar 03     170           5          2

2026 Mar 04     170           5          2

2026 Mar 05     165          15          4

2026 Mar 06     165          15          4

2026 Mar 07     165           8          3

(NOAA)